Welcome Back, Flyer: You're link to Jacob Levy is more astute than your tennis commentary. I'm pretty familiar with New Hampshire politics, if only because of relatives there, and frequent visits for tax-free booze. I know this much: When the media jokes that John Kerry is "New Hampshire's third senator," the natives up there bristle. Sure, there are plenty of liberals in the safe suburbs and cute bedroom towns. But, overall, New Hampshire, like Vermont, has a rump population of don't-tread conservatives -- low-tax, god-and-guns types who don't much like Kerry's paternalistic lectures on what government "should" do. Notice that Kerry does most of his door pounding in places like Nashua, Manchester, Bedford, places where prosperity has brought a certain degree of Massachusetts liberalism. Less populous, less urban/suburban places in the state might as well be Virginia for all the love a Massachusetts limousine liberal will get.

My guess is that Kerry's support is softer than it appears. That's not to say that he'll lose New Hampshire, but he certainly doesn't have it locked up.