Wednesday, January 28, 2004

Lieby denied: It's clear that Lieby's principled stand on Iraq is costing him the race...that plus his religious beliefs (nod to Eno's point that we want vaguely Christian leaders only) and frankly a dearth of much charisma. It's sort of upsetting that this is coming down to a referendum on Iraq; and that Kerry is seen as the guy to take it to Bush. It makes sense on the one hand due to his undeniable personal valor in Vienam (which means he can safely oppose the Hawks), but I guess you wonder if he has the x factor to capture the middle-of-the-road voter. Still, he took Iowa and N.H. fairly convincingly, which are known for their level-headed moderate voters. These aren't crazy states like New Jersey or California.

Many are saying that Kerry only has to come in second in S.C., behind Edwards, to keep the "big mo" going. I don't know that he can't win. Two words: Fritz Hollings. He's stumping big-time for Kerry and the man has some weight to throw around with the Dixie-crats. The black vote is a big question, and while Sharpton is apt to get some of it, I can't imagine most will want to throw their votes completely away; I think they'd like some say in who is going to actually represent the Party in November.

While Dean has the $$, and we keep hearing about his ground troops, I don't know that consistent distant second-place finishes can be consistently overcome. Since 1976, the winner of Iowa and N.H. have gotten the nod.

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