What We Don't Know, We Make Up!
Friday, January 16, 2004
The Candidates as Investments:
How much confidence do you have in your candidate? Think of your candidate as a
$1.00 future contract
premised on winning the nomination. What would you pay for that? That's what the
University of Iowa's electronic market
is doing. Note that, despite the footsteps of Kerry and Clark, Dean is still
trading well above either one
, though down from his towering highs of recent.
Neat test of the predictive power of the market.
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