FauxPolitik

Friday, January 23, 2004

New Hampshire: Rasmussen's tracking poll, completed before the debate, shows:
Kerry 29%
Edwards 17%
Dean 14%
Clark 11%
Lieberman 9%
Kucinich 3%
Sharpton 2%
Not Sure 16%
This makes sense on the heels of Iowa. For one thing, the undecided vote hasn't dropped appreciably, so Kerry and Edwards are stealing their bounces from Clark and Dean. Compare to the ARG poll, which still shows Clark leading Dean and Edwards, with Edwards just barely cracking double digits. I don't know which is correct. My guess would be Rasmussen. ARG's sample size is larger, but Rasmussen only sampled Democrats, while ARG sampled democrats and "undeclared." The next group of polls should firm this up a bit. Out-on-a-limb pick: If Rasmussen's numbers are good, I'd bet on Joe Lieberman moving into the top four, maybe the top three, by primary day.

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