Friday, January 16, 2004

Four Way? Iowa is looking surprisingly close now, with Zogby showing Kerry in a numeric lead (though a statistical tie). I don't trust the polls in Iowa, since they're really more of a buzz index than an actual measure of who will really caucus on Monday. I don't think Edwards or Kerry has moved as far as the polls show, though I expect Edwards got some bump from picking up some editorial endorsements. Any move by Kerry would need a more detailed explanation than I'm prepared to give. Going out on a limb, I think the Harkin endorsement will pay off for Dean, and he'll win in a squeaker. Gephardt has a chance if all the college students and young freaks stay home on Monday for a wake-n-bake, then totally flake out on actually attending their caucus -- which consists of a lot more than going to the high school gym and pulling a lever. And the young adult demographic regularly flakes out on that by about a 5-to-1 margin, so a political process that actually requires some commitment may prove too steep for them.

More: TNR has a report on Kerry's Iowa scramble, specifically tactics and personnel, that helps explain his better numbers. I still don't think his poll numbers reflect solid support.

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