FauxPolitik

Friday, June 18, 2004

Wimby: Finally, we get to the second half of the Slams. You know, the ones that actually mean something. I mean, the Aussie is nice and all, but no one is even aware it's going on because it's in January when you're not supposed to be playing tennis, and because of the time difference. The French, well, it's interesting b/c anyone can win it (anyone that's not in the top 10 that is), but still, it's the French.

Looking at the Mens: Roddick is given number 2, which I suppose makes as much sense as Henman at 5. Neither has done a whole lot this year, albeit Roddick has higher expectations, so you have to view it relatively. Federer, the returning champ, has a fairly easy draw until the Quarters when he could face Hewitt, who was bounced in Rd. 1 last year, but everyone keeps expecting him to win, so he's always viewed as a tough challenger. I'll keep buying into that for now. Federererererer could face Moya before Hewitt, but I can't see that being a problem. Here's Federer's problem instead: he already won the Aussie, and the past five years shows us that no slam can be won by a person who has won of the four previous slams.

More interesting is Roddick's draw. He's going to possibly face Nambaldian (in the semis) who took it nearly all the way two years ago, and he's fashionably Argentinian. If Roddick beats him at that point, then he's got to be playing very, very well. Sadly for the Brits, if Namby is in the semis, he's already put it to Henman a round earlier. This should surprise no one, and I think then Henman should retire. He's not getting any younger.

There's guys like Phillipousis, Safin and Ivanisivec as well, but those guys are like female drivers - impossible to predict (I'm ducking now). Any of those three could win it or flame out. Pointless to discuss.

Womens (sorry, "Ladies") is crazy. Too many withdrawals, and too many Russians. Eno is right: Russians may be stylish picks like Argentinians are over in the Mens, but we have no idea if there's any there, there. With Serena and Venus supposedly mostly healthy, it's hard to count them out. The key is they don't face eachother until the Finals, which is bad for everyone else. Other former champs stand no chance: Davenport = done (that balky knee is never going to be right); Martinez (hasn't won since she beat...); Navratilova (your Rd. 3 pick is nice and all, but she won't get past the 2nd - possibly Dokic, possibly Dulko [yet another Argentinian, and who beat Martina in the French last month]).

J-Cap doesn't have it too bad early on, but she's the female equivalent of Safin et al. I'll stick with Serena - but only if she appears interested.

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