Tuesday, March 09, 2004

Still More Jobs! Nice links, Flyer. I was just speaking about this subject over the weekend (with a Kerry-backing liberal we both know and love -- let's call him Elmo Reese), specifically about structural versus cyclical job losses. Here's the article I found most informative on the subject, by Clive Crook in National Journal. (No permalink, so hit it soon.) It seems to fit with the Investor Insight piece, which also quotes the NY Fed and makes many of the same points regarding skills and re-training that Elmo made.

Well, I hate to sound like a broken record, so I won't belabor the argument yet again (go here, here, and here to have the dead horse soundly re-beaten), but the current level of unemployment represents a structural shift from an aberration, a historical blip during which we had employment figures that typically only accompany a hot war. Employment will slowly work its way back to historical levels (and, as I've said, 5.6% is pretty damn close to what was, historically, "full" employment). Meanwhile, the GDP growth and productivity growth we are seeing are good things, particularly combined with low interest rates and low inflation. This economy is, by reasonable standards, humming. It's not a jobless recovery; it's a return to normalcy.

More: Kudlow hedges a touch, by playing up the payroll survey/jobless claim differences, but ends up agreeing.

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