Tuesday, March 09, 2004

Jobs: Radley discusses state hostility to business as an important factor in job losses/creation, on NRO today.

For further analysis of the jobless recovery, I recommend John Mauldin's Investor's Insight page. It's long, and references some long pieces from places like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but it's an interesting take. Short version: these weren't cyclical jobs that were lost in the 2000-2001 recession, but permanent ones which are harder to replace. Unfortunately, there's nothing President Bush or candidate Kerry can do to affect the situation before November, and not much more to do after the election.

More jobs! The Man Without Qualities looks at historical revisions of Payroll Survey numbers and warns that George W. might be a vicitim of the same bad numbers that helped Clinton oust his Papa.

If the recovery is and remains "jobless," it is possible President George W. Bush might not be re-elected, as happened to his father in 1992. But it's worth noting that after that election, the revised 1992 employment numbers were better than had been thought. Payroll employment was initially reported to have risen only 423,000 during 1992, - but that number was later revised to 1,157,000. That made for an average of 96,417 per month during 1992 - in contrast to the average 35,250 per month thought to be the case while the campaign was being waged. It would be an irony for George W. Bush to succeed in avoiding all of his father's mistakes, but nevertheless failing to be re-elected because the Department of Labor statisticians had not failed to avoid the mistakes of their predecessors from 1992. Life is not always fair - but irony in politics always comes cheap.
And speaking of jobs.....

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