Last week the national average for regular unleaded was $1.71, while "the record," USA Today declared, was $1.74 in August 2003. But all that matters to consumers is inflation-adjusted cost, and in this real-dollar calculation, gasoline prices remain about where they have been for most of the postwar era . . . The current gas-price level that Spencer Abraham, Dan Rather, and others are hyping as close to "the record" is actually 39 percent lower than the true price peak.Perhaps this is why I remain pretty sanguine about fuel costs, despite a commute that amounts to over 600 miles per week. I don't think the cost I pay for gasoline is disproportionate to its value to me. At any rate, failure to adjust for inflation is a rookie mistake that Easterbrook is right to call out. On the other hand, none of this excuses the machinations of OPEC or the technological (and cultural) backwardness of numerous oil-exporting nations. If any reasonably stable, generally free-trading Western nation had the kind of oil reserves of a Saudi Arabia or Venezuela, gasoline would be about $1.00 per gallon -- most of it taxes. (I'm betting that any serious reduction in the price of petro-products would be partially offset by rising taxes, on the theory that the market can bear it.)
That brings up a final point. When discussing the "record" price for gasoline, one can't ignore the tax burden. I don't have the figures, but I don't suppose the taxes on gasoline were higher in the 1950s or 60s, were they? The better comparison (lacking the tax data, which I am too lazy to find right now) would be inflation-adjusted prices of crude (here, indexed to 2000), which still ignores technological advances, but bypasses the taxes built in at the pump.
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