The over/under: The number seems to be 5.6, as in 5.6% unemployment, nationally. Tim Blair suggests through a rather amusing analysis of news reports that unemployment that deviates upward from this figure by as little as 0.1% can be seem as a "jump", and a similar deviation downward a "fall". These words of course depend on who is the president at the time. Plus that 5.6% is seen as either "low" or somewhat alarming again depending on the Oval Office occupant.

Props to FARK.