Monday, March 22, 2004

More Doubts: About global warming, that is.
In response to human emissions of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide, the Earth warms, more water evaporates from the ocean, and the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere increases. Since water vapor is also a greenhouse gas, this leads to a further increase in the surface temperature. This effect is known as "positive water vapor feedback." Its existence and size have been contentiously argued for several years.

. . .

Using the UARS data to actually quantify both specific humidity and relative humidity, the researchers found, while water vapor does increase with temperature in the upper troposphere, the feedback effect is not as strong as models have predicted. "The increases in water vapor with warmer temperatures are not large enough to maintain a constant relative humidity," Minschwaner said.

In other words, all those efforts to model global warming -- you know, the models that predict the loss of the polar caps, unprecedented species die off, and oceanfront real estate in Nebraska -- were based on an erroneous speculation.

In the spirit of my idiotic final four picks, I think I'll call my bookie push my losses double or nothing on the following proposition: All the climate change alarmists will hold press conferences this week to say, "Hey, things really aren't as bad as we thought."

Link via Ron Bailey.

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