The Dominant Party: Freddy Barnes, over at the Weekly Standard, has an article on realignment: according to Barnes, the GOP is poised to dominate like they haven't in generations, perhaps even to the extent that the Democrats did following the New Deal. With only a token caveat about drawing conclusions from the California recall, Barnes is off and running:

Look at the recall. With two ballot questions, no party primaries, and a short campaign, it wasn't a normal election. But it displayed all the signs of realignment. Republicans were enthusiastic, Democrats downcast, Latinos in play, and the gender gap was stood on its head. The result: California is no longer a reliably Democratic state. Until the October 7 recall that replaced Democratic governor Gray Davis with Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republicans hadn't won a major statewide race since 1994. Bush spent millions there in 2000 but lost California by 11 points to Al Gore, who spent zilch in the state.

Of his conclusion, that California is in play for 2004, I'd caution anyone in the White House against taking this too seriously. California was different: the incumbent was dreadfully unpopular; his only Democratic challenger, Cruz Bustamente, ran an inept campaign that couldn't even stake out a position on whether to vote "No" on the recall; the Republican winner ended up being a pro-choice, pro-gay social moderate. Despite the cries of protest about "groping," female voters generally gave Schwarzenegger, like Clinton before him, a "get out of jail free" card on the issue based on his clear stance on Roe.

If 2004 pitted Bush against an unpopular moderate-to-liberal incumbent, I'd like his chances. As it stands, Bush is in the no man's land of a mid-first-termer. He can shake it off, like Reagan, or he can fall victim to it, like his father -- all while Democrats get several months of free shooting at Bush during the primary.

Bush will probably have enough money to make a stand in California, while other GOP candidates have had to husband their resources. But I would do some hard thinking before I dropped $50 million there trying to overcome the decidedly liberal slant to California's voting public.