I have said before that I thought if Schwarzenegger ran he would win. While I made that comment with the assumption that top Democrats were telling the truth about not running to replace Davis, I haven’t seen anything today that would change my sense of the race. I still think Arnold is the man to beat . . . Gray who? Oh yeah. He is still the governor, after all. Now that his vast right-wing conspiracy is being swallowed whole inside a mutli-partisan populist revolt, his best chance is to declare the thing a circus and hope voters trek to the polls to express their dissatisfaction. That or hope people feel sorry for him because so many candidates are picking on him.This sounds about right. In addition, I think that Arnold's candidacy opens the doors for the Dems to trample Davis's corpse in the stampede to be on the ballot.
Thursday, August 07, 2003
Old Predictions, OTBE: Everything I said here about the recall vote in California naturally goes out the window. For some good analysis of how the new landscape looks with Schwarzenegger, Arianna, and political juggernaut Gary Coleman in the race, check out Dan Weintraub's rolling column in the Bee: