Friday, March 14, 2003

Chirac's Tremble, Continued: I'm wondering if Steven Den Beste is on to something here. His theory is that all the diplomatic posturing has been a game of Old Maid, that is, gaming who gets stuck with the blame for making the UNSC irrelevant. Upshot:
Instead of holding a vote, having it be badly defeated, and letting the French be able to claim that they did not veto because there was overwhelming opposition, we can now decide to not bring it to a vote after all, because of the clear fact that France would not permit it to pass, thus putting the French in the position of having sole responsibility for the lack of UNSC approval for the war we're going to fight anyway.
Our turnaround on the "show the cards anyway" vote, coupled with the sudden French willingness to negotiate, may indicate that they've realized how badly they've overplayed things. All we (and, importantly, Blair) have to say is, "The French said they'd veto anything, so they've removed the UNSC as an option." Den Beste has more, much more, laid out in a sort of game theory. It's worth reading it all.

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