FauxPolitik

Monday, February 09, 2004

Dean's Tumble: I tell you, every time I read of another caucus/primary being blown by Dean I'm still amazed. Just think: only three weeks ago, he was the prohibitive favorite. Now, he's pinning his chances on Wisconsin, even though he can't even win in Maine, which is uhhh, next door to that other state, Vermont or something. For god's sake, Kuchy came in third in Maine, yet Dean doesn't win it.

I've heard the theories over Dean's fall from grace; that he was they guy who could spark interest, but not carry the party; that his ideas were good for debate but not for implementation; his scream turned off voters. I suppose those all have their merit, but why was Kerry written off all summer? I mean, if Dean wasn't the real-deal, fine, but Kerry was given as much chance as Sharpton. Clearly, the media has no clue, and fair enough, it never really does. But I'm still mystified how Dean goes from de facto nominee to not even a VP choice and Kerry goes from eating everyone else's dust to prohibitive nominee.

If the war is the big issue, then again, Kerry seems like an odd choice given that he votes against the popular Gulf War and for the unpopular one. Sure, he's against how the war was handled once initiated, but find me a Democrat who isn't?

My working thesis is that when it got down to pulling a lever, people liked that Kerry was a war hero and had significant experience in the Senate (experience doing what is another topic). Dean, when viewed closely, was a doctor who once ran a tiny state full of hippies. I think it's the gravitas test, and while Kerry is a dull bore and a waffler, he does possess (so far) unassailable creds on war topics and character (meaning no Monicas). That may be enough for the Dems. Scary though.

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