FauxPolitik

Friday, December 19, 2003

And After Kerry: Is Gephardt next? It's unlikely he could survive having the most popular politician in Iowa endorse Howard Dean. As the CW goes, Iowa is a must-win for Gephardt as N.H. is for Kerry. Between Harkin endorsing Dean and Gephardt losing some major labor nods to Dean, Gephardt must know his days are numbered.

Well, like most CW, this is just a canned, oversimplified reading of events, lacking the detail or nuance necessary in modern political analysis, right? Bullshit. Show me how either of Gephardt or Kerry puts together the winning delegates after ceding so much home turf to Dr. Dean. Neither Kerry nor Gephardt has a real shot, right now, at either of the big Super Tuesday prizes, New York and California. Gephardt has a shot at delegate-rich Florida, and Kerry can claim a good chance in New Jersey (looking to be very competitive) and, well, Massachusetts (although Dean consistently leads in major polls in Kerry's home state, the lead is typically within the margin of error). He's still not getting the kind of buzz people thought, but Wes Clark is no doubt the biggest threat to Dean now.

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