FauxPolitik

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

WVa: Flyer, Buchanan's point was what I was referring to below, but the more I think about it, the more I doubt the predictive power of WVa. I think Bush has a good shot at Ohio, but the cities are all still controlled by Democrats. Bush has to win by a lot in the sticks to make up for what he'll lose in the cities. His margin in WVa, if it proves predictive of rural Ohio's outcome, doesn't make me confident.

More: Will Collier notes this oddity:

Michael Barone says Bush is getting slightly greater numbers in industrial cities in Indiana and Kentucky than he gained in 2000. Interesting to see if that is echoed in neighboring Ohio.
If that's true, I could be totally wrong about Ohio. As the early numbers shake out, it certainly looks as if Bush is solidifying his small lead.

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