FauxPolitik

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

A Word About Turnout: My guess is that turnout will be as much of a factor in Florida as anywhere else. Since the numbers are breaking for Bush, I'm guessing that turnout will not be a big boost for Kerry. I had figured that an early indication that Kerry was running away with Florida would be the night's first tip-off that the Dems had the upper hand on GOTV. It may be the case that turnout for the Dems is biggest in safe states anyway: New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont.

New Hampshire is interesting. A former solid red state, it is following the Vermont pattern of becoming a moderate-to-liberal state as middle-class refugees from southern New England take advantage of lower taxes and lower housing costs to the north. (I've considered the move myself.) I think the GOP can start to write off New Hampshire.

I'm not sure that the GOP can count on Hawaii to fill the resulting void. If Hawaii goes GOP this year, it will simply be a fluke.

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