The best outcome for the country might be that Bush wins the popular vote, but Kerry picks off some combination of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida -- thereby winning the electoral votes the way Bush did in noughty-nought. Kerry takes the presidency, but with the diminished standing and lack of mandate that Bush was going to have until 9/11 came along. For one thing, as Flyer points out, it could be a relatively painless way for conservatives to take a few years in the woodshed to re-evaluate their national platform. (E.g.: "Do they really want to be triangulating, me-too entitlementistas?)
For another (and this is an old point), the GOP congress is more likely to catch that conservative old time religion with a Democrat in the White House, which could be a real boon, considering how this congress has rolled over every time Bush wanted to firehose some money into something like drugs for the old farts or more federal meddling in education. (I mean, for god's sake, Bush and Ted Kennedy collaborated on NCLB legislation -- the f*cking authoritative stamp of idiocy.)
That said, I'm still voting for Bush. Here's why.