Justice Sidetracked: Jeff Jacoby looks at the implications of same-sex marriage in a New Hampshire divorce case:

When the New Hampshire Supreme Court ruled in a divorce case recently that a married woman who had a lesbian affair had not committed adultery in the eyes of the law, one disappointed party was GLAD, the Gay & Lesbian Advocates & Defenders. In an amicus brief, GLAD had taken the side of the betrayed husband, who wanted to be divorced from his wife not on the neutral grounds of "irreconcilable differences," but on the specific fault ground of adultery.

Jacoby goes on to get everything else wrong, though, by praising the decision. Jacoby, like the court, thinks adultery, like marriage, is between a man and a woman, and that to grant legitimacy to a divorce on the grounds of adultery, when the actual adultery was a lesbian affair, is to see homosexual and heterosexual sex as threateningly similar. This is a cowardly decision. The court, to hold as it did, must have willfully decided the case not on its merits but with an eye toward how such a case would sit as precedent. In fact, I submit it to you: Is it not obvious that the woman in question was unfaithful to her marriage vows? To make the case that she was not is to marshall judicial fiat against the facts of the case and reasonable interpretation. This kind of irresponsible judicial thread-the-needle doesn't stand up to common sense and logic; further, it does so with callous disregard of the case at hand -- that is, denying justice to a reasonable complainant for divorce because a grant of divorce under the terms he requests challenges how a particular judge feels about the legitimacy of the queer.

Jacoby ends with a standard "marriage defender" non-sequitur:

The purpose of marriage is to unite the fundamental opposites of male and female -- the only kind of union that can produce new life. Wherever human society has developed, marriage has developed too, and always for the purpose of bridging the divide between men and women. We look back with scorn at those who twisted the law to make marriage serve their racist agenda [i.e., those who made anti-miscegenation laws]. So will our descendants look at us if we yield to the demand that the marriage laws be twisted to suit a radical sexual agenda.

In other words, Jacoby thinks the fight to open marriage beyond racial laws is morally the same as the fight to keep it closed to homosexuals. The tortured logic of that boggles the mind. Jacoby, like those who fought miscegenation, thinks that his argument is made when he simply covers his eyes and says, "This is not how marriage should be!" Moronic, yes, but at least one court has borrowed his blindfold.

That Time Again? It seems we're fated to live this over and over, at least until the boomers die. Rolling Stone has released its list of the "500 Greatest Albums of All Time." How much surprise can there be in this anymore? The only question seems to be, "Did Revolver or Sgt. Pepper get the #1 spot?" According to Rolling Stone, Pepper wins. Top 10:

1. The Beatles, Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band

2. The Beach Boys, Pet Sounds

3. The Beatles, Revolver

4. Bob Dylan, Highway 61 Revisited

5. The Beatles, Rubber Soul

6. Marvin Gaye, What's Going On

7. The Rolling Stones, Exile on Main Street

8. The Clash, London Calling

9. Bob Dylan, Blonde on Blonde

10. The Beatles, The Beatles (The White Album)

Pointless to argue with this sort of tabulated nonsense, I suppose, but I have to make the point that nothing Bob Dylan ever did comes within a country mile of Marvin Gaye's What's Going On.

Beer and Pussy: P.J. O'Rourke has a piece out of Iraq in this month's Atlantic. It's worth a read, but the real meat comes in the interview (available here) in which he talks about taking over for Atlantic editor-at-large Michael Kelly, who was killed during his embed. Begging your pardon while I quote liberally:

Oh, yeah. These guys just loved Mike, and they really wanted to talk about it. I mean, everybody from General Blount right down to the sergeant who had been driving Mike around—not the one who was driving when he died, but who had been driving him around when he was with his proper embed, before he sort of wiggled out in order to get up to the front. Every single one of them said, "I've just never met anyone who was interested in the same stuff that I am." For one of them, it would be military history, for another one it would be politics, for one of them it would be logistics and planning. Finally, I get down to this sergeant and he said: "Me and Mike, we used to talk for hours." And I asked, "What'd you talk about?" And—if you'll excuse the language— he said, "Beer and pussy." In fact, Mike had bumped into somebody else I talked to, a photographer for USA Today, Jack Gruber, and he said, "Yeah, I bumped into Mike and he said, 'It's been a long time since I've been around eighteen-year olds—if I have to talk about beer and pussy for one more minute, my head is going to explode.'" But they just all loved him. Mike's enthusiasm, and his way of paying attention to people, and the fact that for at least those moments he was with those people, he did care about that stuff in the way they did—that's part of what made him such a good reporter.

I have to admit that I was disappointed that Atlantic did no wrapup on their dead colleague, other than an editor's note. Perhaps these comments from O'Rourke are as close as we'll get to knowing what Kelly saw in Iraq, where he went, what he thought. I wish he was still here to write about it all.

Sticky Wicket: Much is being made (or not) about the sudden about-face (or natural evolution of the original strategy) in the U.S. policy towards Iraq and who is to run it, and when. The pundits have been gleefully saying how Bremer was "summoned" back to D.C. to give a brief on what the situation was, and then get educated on what it will be. Rather than infuriate Eno with some vapid quote from MSNBC or the WaPo, I went to Connie, for a detached view, but from a consistent supporter of the Bush policies.

In that vein, the Connie reports that the situation is a mixed bag. On the one hand, the facts still suggest that most of the attacks are coming from foreign nationals, and are not necessarily reflective of "Ameen Iraq" (my version of "Joe America") and his viewpoints on the occupation. Stated differently, the attacks are opportunistic and designed to inflict pain on the U.S., more as revenge for its infidel ways than for its toppling of Saddam.

On the other, there are serious concerns about the apparent shift in U.S. doctrine to speed up the hand-off of power to the natives. First of all, what do you leave in your wake?

Mr Bremer had previously insisted that the drafting of a constitution should precede elections (as in Afghanistan). But writing constitutions is a painfully slow process—Afghanistan’s effort, unveiled two months late, is a case in point.

And as the CIA report suggests, time may not be on America’s side. According to the New York Times, Mr Bremer is expected to urge Iraqis to hold elections in the first half of next year. However, he must still work out an agreement with the country’s Governing Council, a 24-member executive made up of Iraqis but set up by America. The council is expected to seek more immediate power for itself, possibly instead of rushed elections. Any solution will require delicate handling of the country’s ethnic divisions, as the Sunni Muslim and Kurdish minorities will be worried about too much power accruing to the Shia Muslim majority.

But, if you wait too long, you face the real possiblity of countries like Italy backing out (notice how brave Berlusconi seeks to appear by keeping his forces in the face of one attack) and Japan never showing up. Granted, both of those countries are giving nominal support, but sometimes the appearance is more important than what lies beneath.

In the end you can probably view this in one of two ways: (1) all of the attacks and sudden reversals in policy show that W never had a realistic gameplan and that he's simply treading water with no attainable objective in sight with the shift in policy aimed solely at appeasing future voters; or (2) Iraq is a wildly fluid place, with near anarchy, a disturbing mixture of ethnic influences, no democratic tradition in recent memory, and hell, throw in 70% unemployment, no running water, security or healthcare.

Everything You Didn't Know about Keith: Richards, that is. For instance, did you know he's "a dab hand at sports"?

. . . in Jamaica, Mick Jagger would challenge Richards — then in his ‘elegantly wasted’ phase — to a game of tennis. Sir Mick appeared for the contest dressed for Wimbledon; his opponent sported ragged jeans and kept a butt end clamped to his lip throughout. Keith won the match 6–1.

(Link thanks to Hit & Run.)

Breathing Room for Dean? So says TNR:

The emerging conventional wisdom on Howard Dean's forthcoming endorsements by the country's two most powerful service unions . . . is that, by so clearly elevating Dean to the status of front-runner, they make him an even fatter target for rivals to attack . . . But since Dean was already the front-runner before the SEIU and AFSCME endorsements, the practical effect of those endorsements will be to transform him from de facto front-runner to prohibitive favorite. And what having a prohibitive favorite does is create a situation in which no other candidate can beat Dean outright. Instead, they have to try to win what's essentially a race for second place . . . But if the only race that matters for the moment is the race for second place--i.e., just making the playoffs--why on earth would you waste your time attacking the guy who's in first? The only front-runner any candidate should now care about is the guy who's the front-runner in the race for second. Which means the attacks on Dean should start to diminish.

Don't tell that to Joe Lieberman, who just made a big (for rural New England, anyway) media buy specifically to whack Dean:

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Lieberman, trailing his major rivals in New Hampshire, takes a few soft swipes at front-runner Howard Dean in a new television ad that began airing Friday . . . He doesn't name Dean, but the subject is clear . . . It is the first ad of the presidential campaign that singles out a Democratic rival albeit without naming names.

I think TNR's analysis is wrong-headed anyway. If Kerry were the solid front-runner, with Dean as a strong dark horse, it would pay to attack the dark horse, partly because Kerry is running, for all its bluster, a bland campaign. But when a candidate like Dean has the "big mo" and a huge financial advantage, he's a sensible target, particularly as a front-runner. If you want headlines, hit the guy who's getting headlines. (Of course, Kerry's getting headlines too. But the rule there that obtains is "Never interfere with your opponent when he is in the process of self-destructing.")

Big difference: What's a quadrillion dollars among friends.

If there is a correction, I'm sure it will be followed by a giant "BUT." For Vanity Fair columnists, any dollar amount more than what Affleck spent on "make-up jewelry" for you-know-who is beyond their ken, and is therefore unreasonable. So even if we're only several trillion in hock, it's time to start soaking somebody. Just not P-Diddy, 'cause he raised like tons of money for charity when he ran the NYC marathon and his Grammy after-parties 'effin rock.

Too fast, too fast: Can we please get through Thanksgiving first?

That said, I wholly strongly endorse Bowen's musical choice. "Tis not the season, till I hear it.

Pride goeth before the fall: I think that's the 11th Commandment or something. Anyway, in the category of "never saw it coming" Judge Moore is given the boot. He's now free to make the rounds at revival tents everywhere. Clearly, that is where he belongs.

Nonetheless, complaints were made:

On Thursday, some of Moore's supporters promised to file suit over the chief justice's removal, saying his ouster overturned the will of those who elected him to office.

"Our vote is being negated," said Bob Jewitt, a media coordinator for the Christian Defense Coalition.

Umm, yeah, see, just because you're an elected official it doesn't mean you can flaunt the Constitution. You could vote in a candidate whose sole platform was to put Jews into "education camps" but that doesn't mean he gets to do it.

Those Crazy Senators! So the GOP is going to gab for 30 hours to highlight the unfair obstructionism of the Democrats using (gasp) The Filibuster (/gasp) to oppose judicial nominations. Easterbrook has a good take:

"This is not just for show," Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, one of the yak-a-thon proponents, pronounced. Of course it's just for show! There is zero possibility the event will change Democratic votes on the disputed nominees . . . [Majority Leader Bill] Frist says the yak-a-thon will raise public awareness regarding the cloture rule. People are going to march in the streets about cloture?

Raise public awareness? Isn't that we have liberal whiners . . . er, activists for? I've made no secret of the fact that I think the Democrats' strategy is petty, juvenile, ill conceived, and likely to backfire. The GOP, obviously, believes in fighting fire with fire -- hence the petty, juvenile, ill conceived gesture now going on in the Senate that will likely backfire.

In the coincidences department, Easterbrook is surely aware that his brother Frank has been mentioned as a possible "spoiler" recess appointment if the Dems succeed in blocking the current slate. The idea goes that Bush, if defeated by the Senate, would recess-appoint some leading conservative intellectuals for a year -- ostensibly to make the Dems realize how safe-as-milk mainstream the current nominees really are. Easterbrook, Posner, Kozinski, and Bork are regularly mentioned in this scenario, though at least the first two have flirted enough with libertarian ideas to be as likely unpalatable to the right as the left.

More: Larry Solum (emphatically not a right-wing shill) drops the hammer too. (Link via Randy Barnett, who is taking this on over at Volokh's place.)

Priorities: Turns out all that money that was paid to the states by Big Tobacco as penalties, and which was slated for use in funding anti-tobacco programs for the kids, isn't being used to fund anti-tobacco programs for the kids. Okay, but at least the money taught the tobacco companies a lesson, right? Right? Uh oh:

At the same time, cigarette makers pumped up their marketing budgets by 66 percent in the three years following the settlement to a record $11.45 billion a year, the group's report said.

D-Day As Reported by CNN: Funny piece over at Right Wing News on how today's media would cover D-Day, ya know if there was like a time machine thingy. Anyway, it's priceless satire. Here's a snippet:

Casualties at day’s end are nothing short of horrific; at least 8,000 and possibly as many as 9,000 were wounded in the haphazardly coordinated attack, which seems to have no unifying purpose or intent. Of this number at least 3,000 have been estimated as having been killed, making June 6th by far, the worst single day of the war which has dragged on now - with no exit strategy in sight - as the American economy still struggles to recover from Herbert Hoover’s depression and its 25% unemployment.

Temper, Temper: USA Today has a cover story on Howard Dean, picking up the "temperament" thread that came loose in a recent debate. It begins with this paragraph:

Howard Dean's temper is no secret here in his home state. He has called political opponents "boneheads" and said they're "in la-la land." He's told lawmakers that he would like to see them lose their jobs. One longtime adversary wonders whether he's up to tasks that require tact, such as international diplomacy.

Is Dean too much of a hotheat to be president? I don't think so. This is a nice example of "meme" journalism. The "Dean Temper" story has been bouncing in the undercurrents for a while, and his opponents have quietly made it a key talking point. But it comes across as a little bit silly. For one thing, Dean's mouth has been the source of his stellar rise in popularity among the party faithful. Yes, he'll have to modulate for the general election, but for now he's clearly riding a straight-talk wave. For another, Dean's outbursts have been pretty minor. I was among the minority who thought he defended himself well over his Confederate flag comments, and thought he had no reason to apologize. Perhaps it was a gaffe according to the Kinsley definition -- when a politician accidentally speaks the truth -- but the fallout would have been much less if the Democrats didn't insist on sharing the stage with race hustler Al Sharpton, who will call out any statement that even appears to break the Democrats' byzantine racial taboos.

Finally, look at the successful presidents who had trouble restraining their emotional side: Nixon presided over a period of very successful diplomacy, despite a short-fused temperament and a tendency to vehemently denounce his opponents for everything, including bad weather; Clinton was notoriously hotheaded (and foulmouthed) and still managed to project a friendly, if slightly oleaginous, persona; LBJ had almost no ability to self-edit, including on racial issues, but still pressed for the civil rights victories that cemented his legacy; Truman, while president, once publically threatened to break the jaw of a critic who panned his daughter's musical debut.

Dean's competitors, particularly Kerry, want to foster a public perception that Dean is not a fellow we want to trust with "the button." Back to USA Today:

[Presidential scholar Fred] Greenstein predicts that if Dean is the Democratic nominee, Bush will run ads attacking him "on grounds of stability." He even imagines a hypothetical spot in which Dean "sends off the (nuclear) missiles and then says, 'Maybe I should rethink this.' " Greenstein hastily adds: "I'm not saying that's what he would do."

My apologies to Greenstein, but he sounds like a shill. The fact that he says this legitimizes the point, even though the evidence suggests Bush is set to run a high-minded, rhetorically shiny campaign (as incumbents usually do). It's a self-fulfilling prophecy in camouflage: Dean's competition can invoke just this kind of logic to paint Dean as -- if not unfit for the presidency -- an unwise choice to run against Bush. In other words, it's the same thing: If Kerry, for example, strategically raises Greestein's "Bush will attack" point, it's the same damn thing as Kerry making the attack himself, only with the added twist of gutlessness.

I disagree with Howard Dean about pretty much everything, but the gun-to-the-head test tells me I'd vote for him over the midgets who benefit from the propigation of the "temper" line.

Hairlines on the sly: I am continually fascinated by balding men. Not in a kinky way, mind you, but in a sociological way. First off, balding is genetic. There's no fault involved as to who goes bald, and there's nothing we can really do to stop it, despite Rogaine's best advertising efforts. All things being equal, men would prefer not to go bald, but in the end, there's no shame in it and it's up to the man to go through the seven stages of coping. Some do it easier than others.

Now, I'm not balding yet, and if the wives' tale holds true, I won't be anytime soon (mother's father wasn't; my dad has his and almost no grey hair to boot - and I've found no evidence of coloring). But even if I were, the last fu*king thing I'm gonna do is get plugs. I see three men regularly (two on the train, one at work) who got them some time ago, at a point when they obviously thought they were as bald as they were going to get. Wrong. Now they're left with the fringe on the side and a ridiculous, artificial hairline in the front, with a regular pattern of plugs fading toward the top and back. I'm sure they got sold on them by some shyster "doctor" who assured them this would be the miracle cure. Now, thousands of dollars later, and with the passage of time, they're left off worse than if they never did a thing.

I'm also amazed by the combover. There has to be a point where you have to stop compensating for the lack of middle, by stretching the sides. Worse still, those who come up from the back and either comb it all forward, or swirl it around. Sometimes we're talking a handful of strands plastered straight across to give the briefest illusion of a hairline, of course only when viewed from straight on and at eye-level (which probably, not-coincidentally, equates to the man's view in the mirror each morning). Let's call this the "Guiliani" (although I see now he's given up the ghost).

I guess the question is: who do they think they are fooling? And also, can the person really feel that much better about himself by doing it? Here's the real proof. Compare men like Michael Jordan (and we'll leave aside, for the moment, whether black men can pull off the bald look more effectively), Patrick Stewart, and Yul Brynner, even. Then look at someone using the -over. Granted the aforementioned men are all good-looking, in-shape athletes or actors, but still. A dignified, graceful bald or semi-bald head that is well-maintained (shaving, polishing, etc.) has to win hands-down over a sick, twisted attempt to manipulate what you have left into a full cover. And let's not start on toupes.

Sly Restaurants: Well, I tend to agree that government inspections are iffy in their efficacy, but certainly if there weren't any inspections, I don't know that that would be a good thing either. Maybe we should allow the two markets to exist. Licensed ones would obviously be more expensive for the consumer (as they are for the restauranteur), but they would have the benefit of offering "cleared" product (and don't forget it's not just the food, but the physical plant as well that is declared "safe") and could then hire the celebrity chef. Then you'd have the mom-and-pop places or back-door soup kitchens where there is no pretense of "legitimacy" but you get literally home-cooked food at low prices. Then when you sued for food poisoning, the defense lawyer would simply say: "Well, you knew this was an unlicensed restaurant, didn't you?"

As Eno would say:"Let the market sort it out."

Restaurants on the Sly: Radley links to a NYT article on a boomlet in unlicensed restaurants. Says the article:

These underground restaurants range from upscale to gritty, and are born from youthful idealism, ethnic tradition or economic necessity. They lack certification from any government agency and are, strictly speaking, against the law. You dine in them at your own risk. If you can find them.

I saw this phenomenon, on a smaller scale, in the alleyways of the string of Hispanic-flavored little towns along the Jersey side of the Hudson: Jersey City, Hoboken, Weehawken, Union City. One Cuban fellow I worked with (call him Carlos) was a good example: After work, he would go home, open the back door, and dish out homemade comfort food -- soups, stews, red beans -- that his wife cooked up during the day. It was only a couple of bucks, and it was great food. A number of Puerto Ricans and Salvadorans ran similar businesses, with good food at good prices -- all illegal as hell. Of course, their market wasn't the white yuppies but the locals, so word of mouth tended not to spread very far, and the likelihood of a health department bust was low.

What Radley doesn't say, and the article only implies, is that in a major city, the restaurant business is a racket in which the business owner is regularly rolled by suppliers, the mob, and . . . the state. (In Massachusetts, you need a special license to serve milk, for chrissake.)

''It's all about how to avoid making people sick,'' said Jack Breslin, director of the consumer protection program at the San Francisco health department. ''If no one is looking over my shoulder to see how I'm storing, processing and serving my food, the greater the risk of something bad happening.''

It's a lovely sentiment, but really, I'm a big boy now. I can weigh the risks of getting my menudo or pupusas on the sly. The cost of opening a restaurant is often prohibitive, especially in a poor neighborhood. Carlos couldn't charge his neighbors enough to go legit; as it was, his prices covered food costs and a bit of profit for his family. Getting licensed, providing bathrooms, meeting ADA access requirements: these were not in his budget, and they would have priced him out of his market's reach. In the end, how much do you want to pay for a plastic bowl of red beans and a hunk of cornbread on a napkin? How much more is it worth, and how much better is it, in a china bowl with silverware?

Another thing: Carlos . . . was essentially a garbage man, managing waste disposal for a large apartment building. I regularly saw him digging through the central dumpster because the chute was clogged. Does it make a difference? I had no concerns about eating the food he served, about getting sick from contamination, from food poisoning. In fact, I think I probably felt better about it from seeing how clean he kept the trash room at that building.

TMQ Triumphant: Easterbrook finds a new (temporary) home at Football Outsiders. Link via Reynolds.

Boxers/briefs redux: CNN thinks its important that we find out if presidential candidates prefer Mac or PC formats. At least important enough to bully some girl into asking the question at the Rock the Vote debate.

I'm glad she has the nerve to write about it, but I wish she'd told the CNN handlers to stop insulting the youth of America.

That's my job.

Link via Bitter.

My kind of town: 13 Chicago, 11 Austrian, 1 Keynes - 71 total. Razor's right that some of the questions were difficult to find a perfect answer: I revert back to that academic mainstay, "The best choice available." Since most of my economic study has come from P.J. O'Rourke books, I'm surprised I was able to answer any of them without a stiff drink. Business school teaches many things well, but economics is treated a little lightly, mostly a test of basic aptitude and the ability to read funny charts. And, as I've remarked before, my undergraduate instruction was remarkably unbiased. Although, a test like this uncovers some underlying beliefs, which is where I think my Chicago side comes out.

The funny part was reading the Socialist answers.

Chicago-Mmmmm, Pizza: No, I'm not dead. Just in the middle of midterms, so an economics quiz is a little redundant right now. I promise to join back in the fun as soon as I'm able. Till then...

And the answer is: Perhaps surprisingly here is my breakdown: 13 Answers = Chicago; 6=Austrian; 5=Keynes; 1=Social. Overall score = 55. Certainly my college training was mostly Keynesian by nature, but Milton Friedman's annoying personality aside, I more closely align myself with the Chicago School of thought, but with enough areas requiring government intervention that I am hardly a purist. The test was obvious in terms of what was Austrian and what was socialist (just look for the word "exploit" or "capitalist" in it), but the distinction between Keynesian and Chicago were not always so obvious.

My left-leanings come in the socio-environmental arena, but not monetary policy, defense, unions or wages. Good quiz. I couldn't easily answer a few, which made it fun to sort them out.

What's Your EQ? Call it your economics quotient. Actually, this quiz just sorts out economic preferences, but with a little more detail than most multiple choicers. It asks you to choose from four "school" answers to each of 25 questions -- a Socialist answer, a Keynesian answer, a Chicago answer, and the right answer . . . er, I mean the Austrian answer.

Try it and see where you fall. I'll give you my guesses: Razor is a solid Keynesian, but with a dash of Chicago. Don't play Monopoly with him, since that's where he lets out his inner capitalist-pig demons and will squash you like fly.

Flyer is a Chicago boy; yeah, he read Ayn Rand and everything, but he's still wary that the market might prove fallible . . . someday.

I suppose you can guess where I sit -- I got an 85. (Link via Hit & Run.)

Don't Look at Me: Bush's steel tariffs are indefensible. I think you're right that, as soon as the Supremes called the election for Bush, he realized he had to do something to solidify West Virginia and Michigan and Pennsylvania for 2004, since it would be statistically unlikely for him to win Florida again -- assuming, of course, that voters there can use some kind of ballot.

As for the EPA's New Source Review reinterpretation, try this piece by Jonathan Adler, in which he says:

Many of the charges against the Bush Administration's NSR reforms are simply untrue. The Natural Resources Defense Council, for instance, claims that the regulatory changes allow facilities to increase their emissions if they qualify for certain exemptions. Not so. Under the rules finalized this summer month, upgrades or repairs that increase a facility's emission potential are still required to adopt state-of-the-art pollution controls under NSR. The rule only exempts proposed repairs and modifications that will not increase emissions above permitted levels, and that also meet several other conditions designed to prevent wholesale reconstruction of facilities under the guise of maintenance and repair. The point of these changes is to facilitate modifications and repairs that enhance the safety, reliability, and efficiency (and therefore the environmental performance) of existing plants.

Since that's National Review, you'll probably bust my balls over being gullible. Fair enough: Here's Easterbrook's full argument on Bush the enviro-monster. It only mentions New Source en passant, but the gist is the same:

Taken together, Bush's three dramatic anti-pollution decisions should lead to the biggest pollution reduction since the 1991 Clean Air Act amendments.

Why is the Bush environmental record so relentlessly distorted? Because it could ruin the instant-doomsday script. Democrats are bashing the president for political reasons, just as Republicans bashed Clinton for political reasons. Environmental lobbies raise money better in an atmosphere of panic, and so they are exaggerating the case against Bush.

Here he is again last year in a speech at an energy technology seminar:

More generally, the stupidness of the current debate was on display in the synthetic furor over the new-source rule. Environmentalists were right to say that some Ohio Valley plants were evading the intent of the rule, and business was right to complain that new-source perverse incentives were the worst provisions of the otherwise highly successful Clean Air Act. But the significance of the rule was blown all out of proportion. Enviros and the media suggested the Midwest plants were causing some kind of astonishing calamity, when in fact air pollution in the Midwest and on the East Coast is in steady decline; what was really at issue in the new-source rule was not higher pollution, but the future rate of decline.

Bonus: Here's a good study, by someone who has actually read the New Source rules start to finish, which concludes that:

The disproportion between the rhetoric and the reality of air quality policy is really a measure of the disenfranchisement environmental groups fear will take place if a relatively simpler scheme of regulation is adopted--a scheme that will remove their de facto seat at the regulators' table and courthouse steps. Keep this in mind as the new round of public hearings offers mostly nonsensical noise pollution.

Speaking of efficiency: Well, we all now how big a proponent of the free market Bush is, right? And interfering with that market is something he simply finds an anathema to his neo-con philosophy, right? And large, distorted tariffs on imports certainly would represent such an interference, right? Right?? Oh, wait, those tariffs were for "trade promotion" and so, using Bush's penchant for labeling, that's justified.

Listen, I understand the games countries play with subsidizing certain industries to boost productivity and/or lower prices. Responding countries slap on tariffs, called "safeguard restrictions" to fight fire with fire.

But here's the issue, the WTO, our brainchild and pet project decided not once, but twice, that Bush's pandering to steel states was illegal. In response, Bush is "considering" still whether he's going to remove them. People say that the U.S. doesn't need to play nice with its "allies" because we're right, and everyone else is too wimpy to do what needs to be done. On the security issue, I'll agree. However, these tariffs have nothing to do with security...not even under the expanded umbrella that Ridge et al. use. It's about securing W. Va. among other states come election time. The increased antagonism towards the U.S. will have a reckoning. No, we're not about to face invasion, but an economic cold shoulder is hardly helpful to either side. Hell, even most steel producers don't even want the things. And if those struggling American steel companies want any kind of international market, long term, then they had better re-prioritize their votes. The stakes only get higher.

My real motive: To detract from workplace efficiency by draining wokers' utility as they spiral deeper, ever deeper, into blog arguments.

If you can show that but for the added cost of an upgrade, a polluter would have modernized, then yes, that law is perversely written. But is the company more or less dirty before the upgrade, i.e. is the upgrade designed so that more pollutants can be shed from boiler more quickly? Okay, now I'm reducing this to the micro-, micro- level, and may be impossible to debate. Clinton's final days were full of questionable activity (Ed: as opposed to the first 7.5 years??) to be sure, but the solution to poorly written or unrealistic regulations is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater for the sake of "efficiency". Please, re-write the things, by all means. But don't simply erase them and claim the problem solved. And to be clear, the new regulations provide an alarming back door: Up to 20% of the value of the physical plant can be spent on upgrades without improving pollution controls. This to me sounds like a bone thrown.

Last, all the revised EPA regulations do is invite the states to come around with process servers.

On Motives: So, why the great environmentalist outcry? Because you and I both know that environmentalism is first and foremost a business. Just as you can never get a mailing from NARAL that doesn't scream that the sword of Damocles hangs over legal abortion, so too does the green lobby use ridiculous rhetoric, garbled logic, and one-sided research to get between you and your money -- no matter whether the real news is good or bad. Anyway, the news on the environment is good.

Any organization quickly develops beyond its original goals and becomes a self-perpetuation machine, an organism designed for fundraising. (Trust me on this; I've worked in non-profit development.) It's always about a crisis that can only be averted if you Give Now. Note that NPR, following its $200 million endowment from the Kroc estate, one of the biggest philanthropic gifts in history, is not even thinking about dropping the public-funding teat from its ratlike jaws, nor will there even be a brief fundraising holiday for stations. If anything, NPR will announce that this endowment calls for an expanded mandate.

What Comes After Cubed? For a green, you're sounding a little purple about this. Okay, I too am opposed to billowing fumes of untreated coal fumes, but that's not what's at stake here. I quote from the editorial you linked (here, by the way):

One of its main targets was a rule requiring operators of older, coal-fired plants to install the most up-to-date pollution-control equipment whenever they upgraded their facilities in a way that increased airborne emissions. During the late 1990s dozens of companies, including Southern, were slapped with stiff fines and sued for violating that rule.

Last month, the EPA essentially wrote the rule out of existence and will now allow polluters to increase emissions without having to install new control equipment. EPA officials insist that lawsuits filed under the previous rule will still be pursued, but that assurance is worthless. Certainly, utility executives don't seem too worried by the prospect.

The claim that we're rolling back environmental protection, as that author firmly believes, is at best an extremely one-sided reading of the rule changes, as even the nature-boy, anti-SUV Easterbrook has admitted:

Congress has not altered environmental law under Bush 43, and administration decisions in matters such as the "new source review" issue [i.e., the policy under which the polluters had been pursued] on power plants will, in the worst case, simply slow the rate at which pollution declines.

I agree with you that efficiency is a matter of some perspective. I'm talking about principles. Bush waived those coal-emissions regulations because companies were using the restrictions as a reason not to upgrade. Plus, some of the upgrades that tripped the requirement for updated pollution control were questionable. It was, in short, onerous policy. So is the principle cleaner air or having "tough" policies? Under the Bush rules, the plants can upgrade facilities (thus reducing some pollutants -- a good thing, after all) without having to comply with the heavy, stack-scrubber pollution-control updates that would blow the capital improvements budget -- the requirement of which would lead to the unintended outcome of the Clinton-era EPA rules: no upgrades at all, increased pollution as plants age, and a strained business-regulatory relationship. Thus was Clinton able to claim he had tough EPA rules on the books, even though those rules increased pollution by discouraging upgrades.

In other words, the Bush compromise reduces pollution less than total implementation of the Clinton-era rules. But those rules provided a perverse incentive for coal burners to run decrepit plants on outdated technology for as long as they possibly could. Bush has in effect handed the environment half a loaf, instead of none; and the environmentalists have collectively shit in his hand for it.

More: This is all slightly reminiscent of the idea that Bush "wants more arsenic in your water." Clinton, on his way out the door, had dropped arsenic tolerance to nearly unmeetable levels (unmeetable, at least, without huge increases in local spending -- another unfunded mandate). In addition, a lot of the morbidity and mortality information showed that the reduction would have a negligible effect on public health. In other words, Clinton made a huge, expensive, and poorly understood environmental gesture (but not, by the way, until he was grabbing his hat on the way out); Bush put things back to where they had been for 99.999% of Clinton's 8 years, and the greens roasted him for it. That's why we need efficiency in environmental policy. Not everything that is arguably good for the environment is worth the cost, either factored or unintended. I agree that efficiency has an unfriendly face, since it effectively puts a price on everything -- even endangered Warblers. But everything does have a price, even if we don't admit it.

Cubed: Fair enough, and you're right about not being prosecuted under laws that have changed (i.e. animal buggery...oh, wait, that still is a crime...heheh...forget it). However, those past-polluters have been sitting in violation for the past three years while the Admin. held off until they managed to change EPA ah, laws. I question the "efficiency" label as one that is easily applied whenever one wants to re-characterize their actions. Plus everything is economic. We prosecute murderers, however, first and foremost because it's simply wrong, although you could quite easily make an efficiency argument too about why random murders would drag down the economy.

When we look back to some of the horrors of pollution, I think the efficiency argument is further weakened (and nice try with the absurdist example of the Warbler - we're talking billowing plumes of un-treated coal fumes that lead to acid rain, contaminated drinking water, and lung problems - obviously editors read enough Grisham novels to catch on to the lawyer tricks). Efficiency, like anything else, is dependent on perspective. It's certainly more efficient for the companies and their creditors and employees to operate without costly scrubbers and monitors weighing down the bottom line. Not so much for the neighboring housing market or farm, however. Should the laws be modernized to ensure effective remedies? Yes, but that's not what Bush is really doing. He's taking off any risk of sanction.

When you let the asylums run the place...well, you know how that chestnut goes. No one should be left to police themselves. Just like taking a quiz in high school where you grade your own results (or worse, let your best buddy do it), there's little incentive to mark "F" when with a few cosmetic changes, you have a "B". And what market, exactly, is there for pollution regulation? I'm not going to buy a car from GM because it (or its supplier) uses hundreds of dangerous, polluting chemicals to make the impact-resistant plastic resins in a bumper? By the time I learn of all this, it's water under the bridge, and GM has pledged to change its evil ways.

If Bush wants to phase out antiquated laws, that's one thing. But leaving nothing in their place seems a bit drastic, and not very realistic.

Squared: I'm not sure my take on Bush's environmental record will ever satisfy you, but here goes: We're not talking about laws here -- we're talking about EPA regulations (regulations : laws :: M*A*S*H : Catch-22). I don't think this is a case of ex post facto legitimizing of polluters. Simply put, the EPA has adopted new standards; rather than pursue polluters under the old standards, the department will leave that money in the bank. Sensible, as far as I'm concerned.

Okay, I won't split hairs. Call them laws. From a strict legal standpoint, a change in law (or jurisprudence) will naturally affect those charged. Let's say you're charged with eating a roast beef sandwich in the park. The day before you're called to stand trial for your offense, the city parks commission decides that they will now allow roast-beef-sandwich-eating activities. So you're gonna go before that judge and say, "Fair cop, your honor. I'll pay the fine"? Forgive me, but bullshit. You're going to argue that the change in policy shows that the park has awakened to your plight and blah blah blah, and you'll either win or cause the park to spend gobs of money fighting your appeal -- that is, fighting to prosecute you for something you're now allowed to do anyway.

[Sidebar: Your attempt to stir my moral indignation with a gratuitous death-penalty reference is wasted. Besides, it's only an old lawyer's trick of distraction. Who cares what the inverse of this situation is? We're not talking about the inverse. The analogy above is a better way to look at it.]

Moreover, the change in policy, which will no doubt be covered by the "neutral" media as a sop to "big pollution," is part of an overall pro-market plan for environmental efficiency; it's about time, too, that we approached the environment as we would any other issue of enormous cost and uncertain benefit. (E.g., how many people would you put out of work to save a Cerulean Warbler?) Part of that cost-benefit reassessment will obviously trickle down into enforcement, with activities like prosecution of non-crimes being pretty high on the budget-cutting list. If it's time for the old liberal-green policy paradigm to be reconsidered (and I think it is), doesn't it make sense to shut down prosecutions on things we don't consider crimes anymore?

The environmentalists will spin everything Bush does as part of a black-thumbed plan to pave the entire country (except for snowmobile trails). It doesn't wash, though. The decision to change pollution standards is a good idea, and the decision to cease prosecution under the old standards is smart policy and good budgeting.

"I sentence you to be a lawyer...for life.": Slate, last week, published a little piece about William Saletan's experiences with traffic court in Maryland/D.C. I laughed and laughed...not at the experiences he recounted, but at his disbelief/bemusement over the encounters. He presumed that logic and fairness prevailed in the justice system. Even funnier, at the traffic court level.

As a practicing commercial litigator, my experiences in traffic court are infrequent, thank god. I usually end up there as a favor to a client or friend. Traffic court may best exemplify the two-headed purpose of government bureaucracy: 1) patronage, 2) revenue generator. The judges are all hacks. I don't mean this in a personal way, but in the sense that the worst thing they're seeing is well, traffic violations. There's not much drama there, much less any high-level analysis or policy-making, and as such, they're lazy and not really interested in working too hard. In Philly, it's about 8 "courtrooms" each manned by one police officer who stands-in for the reporting officer (meaning they don't make the actual officer who found the violation appear - the stand-in simply reads from the citation), plus a tipstaff (think "Bull" from Nightcourt), and a judge. Before them, the huddled masses. Insult to injury to those masses, the attorneys get to sit up front, and go first. Our only other perk is we can avoid the metal detectors.

Anyway, back to the hacks. These judges are only there to generate revenue. They really don't care about what happened, and as such, they are pre-disposed to take the officer's side of things 99 times out of 100. This is why you hire an attorney. With an attorney, your odds increase to losing on the cited violation only about 79 times out of 100. Yes, you can always appeal afterwards and start anew and make a deal with the A.D.A., but it's better to clear it up right away. See, an attorney knows the game. We know that the Court will be more apt to let you off if it can still serve its purpose of making money.

Let' say you get caught speeding 55 in a 35. 20mph over, that's some pretty hefty points on your license, not to mention a fine. But, if your record is otherwise good, and you weren't drinking Bud while you were driving, an attorney can usually get the judge to knock your citation down to a "3111" which is a generic non-point moving violation. $99 later, and you're off the hook and your insurance company is never the wiser.

Now if you're dealing with a mere parking violation, then yes, you simply mail in your check. You lose so much more value in taking time off of work, only to wait for two hours and have the judge not listen to your arguments as he finds you guilty. Why bother? You may very well be smarter than the system, but the system always wins. There's my free legal advice.

"Close the barn doors before the cows get back in!": This is the only interesting news to come out of the Kerry campaign since it started. Now what? Bring out Al Gore as his V.P.?

Okay, but square this: Yup the economy is humming. Again, that's how economies work in free markets, they cycle between times of plenty and times of drought. Is Bush responsible for either the highs or the lows? Nope.

Yes, Bush's speech was excellent (from our point of view anyway), and it's time for the do-nothings in Olde Europe to understand that all their speeches don't amount to the force of one Abrams tank. Might does not make right, but neither does being contrary on every point make you brilliant. It just makes you disagreeable without offering viable alternatives.

But, what about our environment? Why is Bush bending over backwards to help polluters? Interestingly, it's not that his policies going forward were changed (we already knew he intended to give polluters a break), but now he's killing the investigations into those already tagged for penalty. Meaning those that were in violation of earlier laws, will now be judged under the rules as written. The inverse of that would be akin to executing someone for an act that wasn't a crime at the time the person committed it. Lovely policy.

Home Front Conventional Wisdom: Two weeks ago: "It's the economy again, stupid."

One week ago: "Yeah, but it's a jobless recovery."

This week:

A sudden improvement in the U.S. employment picture on Friday sent some economists scrambling to revise their views on when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates . . . [T]he October payrolls report showed a 126,000 gain, more than double analysts' forecasts. Dramatic revisions to previous data showed three consecutive months of gains.

It's all Bush's . . . um . . . fault.

That Said: U.S. foreign policy is a big ship, one that doesn't make hard turns with screws pulling on hard rudder. Thus, the mid-East reaction to Bush's speech didn't deviate from the old template:

President Bush's call for greater democracy in the Middle East is drawing a cautious response from commentators in the region, who say the United States must first show it is honestly moving to resolve regional conflicts.

Perhaps they're referring to the Israel/Palestine question, hmm? That will always be the fallback of statists and stasists in the region -- "Fix the Palestinian situation first!" I would be sympathetic if so many in the region weren't working to bail water back into the leaky lifeboat of a "peace" process.

The Speech: Comparisons to Churchill and FDR are popping up among sympathetic bloggers, perhaps because Bush's speech invoked Westminster and "the four freedoms" explicitly. (It's worth reading, by the way; Bush's speechwriters are good at their job.) There's no denying, as Michael Totten notes, that Bush's vision is decidedly a liberal one. Another noteworthy liberal, Gregg Easterbrook, called Bush's speech "a masterwork." I don't wish to beat a dead horse, but the policy that Bush outlined is steeped in the tradition and the best ideals of the left: self-determination, liberty, dignity:

The advance of freedom is the calling of our time; it is the calling of our country. From the Fourteen Points to the Four Freedoms, to the Speech at Westminster, America has put our power at the service of principle. We believe that liberty is the design of nature; we believe that liberty is the direction of history. We believe that human fulfillment and excellence come in the responsible exercise of liberty. And we believe that freedom -- the freedom we prize -- is not for us alone, it is the right and the capacity of all mankind.

Further, Bush expressed the great ideal of universality:

Time after time, observers have questioned whether this country, or that people, or this group, are "ready" for democracy -- as if freedom were a prize you win for meeting our own Western standards of progress. In fact, the daily work of democracy itself is the path of progress.

As I listen, I become more and more convinced that, at least in foreign policy, a Bush presidency is the natural choice for liberals with a non-partisan attachment to their core principles. In fact, the very traditions that the GOP embraced for years, Bush explicitly rejects:

Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe -- because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of liberty. As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence ready for export.

What Bush rejects, as Totten notes, are the very realpolitik principles that liberals derided in the past (in Totten's words, the "our bastards" policy). But most of the liberal commentariat (i.e., those who define their liberal commitment by their degree of opposition to Bush) is silent on the speech. Perhaps I'm reading too much actual policy into a foot-stomper speech, but I don't think so. As Dan Drezner says, up until now, "President Bush hadn't articulated the case clearly enough for why the U.S. should be in Iraq regardless of the WMD question." Perhaps not, but he nailed it yesterday.

Movie Friday: Here's an interesting post from NR's Corner on innovative, groundbreaking movies:

Several readers have complained about my dissing of 2001. I stand my ground. There's one point a couple readers have made though I will concede. They say if I'd seen it when it first came out I would think differently. That is undoubtedly true. But some movies -- and books and bands and art -- are significant because they break new ground and some are significant because they are timeless. I'm sure there are other Cornerites more qualified to discuss that point at length. But it seems to me that 2001 was pathbreaking but it wasn't timeless. I feel the same way about Citizen Kane, by the way. I watched it in film class in college so I know all about the groundbreaking techniques used in the film. But those techniques have now been absorbed by the trade. What's left is a pioneering movie which is more interesting as a historical document in the history cinema than as a movie.

I've made the same observation myself. Let me put it in the context of a favorite actor of mine, Humphrey Bogart. Michael Curtiz's Casablanca is one of my all-time favorites. It's a stirring, heavyhanded melodrama with great performances, outsized characters, and a zippy script. But it is, as a cinematic achievement, wholly inferior to John Huston's Treasure of the Sierra Madre. Sierra Madre takes a fairly simple morality tale (more or less an updating of Chaucer's Pardoner's Tale) and brings it to life through outstanding use of black and white film, pioneering use of location shooting (i.e., refusing to "pretty things up"), and iconoclastic use of casting (e.g., Bogart, so frequently a hero or anti-hero, is neither in this film). Casablanca is a fun, superficially symbolic story on a thoroughly conventional canvas, while Sierra Madre is an allegorical story told with great artistic merit.

So why would I rather watch Casablanca any day of the week? So much of what made Sierra Madre unique and astounding (and, at the time, unpopular) has slowly become part of the film vernacular, much the way the pioneering techniques of Alfred Hitchcock literally created the cinematic syntax of horror and suspense films. Casablanca, which may have been the best "B" movie ever, has dressy but unconvincing sets, low comedy, crowd-pleasing musical numbers, and a Max Steiner score that is constantly barging in on the dialogue; meanwhile, the story is pure soap opera.

As for Sierra Madre, its outstanding features were either co-opted by convention or overcome by events: casting against type became more common as the studios' monopoly on actors began to crumble; the dominance of Technicolor meant that audiences forgot how to watch B&W movies (that is, B&W in the late-40s/early-50s became associated with lower budgets, rather than artistic choice); location filming became the norm, and John Ford's epics quickly outclassed any location shooting that came before. What's left is, as stated above, a historical document worth pointing to and saying, "Huston was the first one to do that!"

Casablanca, on the other hand, was and always will be an exercise in pure movie enjoyment.

The Vietnam Template: War College Fellow Mac Owens takes on the Iraq/Vietnam comparison:

The anti-Coalition forces can harass the U.S. forces and inflict casualties, but they cannot prevail unless we permit them to. But we do need to acknowledge what is happening there and to modify our approach. In Iraq, we need to isolate the Baathist regions . . . But we also have to secure the borders between Iraq and its neighbors, especially Iran and Syria. These countries need to understand that they will pay dearly for supporting the jihadists that cross their borders into Iraq. Those who believe this is a diplomatic issue need to recall the observation of Frederick the Great: "Diplomacy without force is like music without instruments."

No, Iraq is not Vietnam. In fact, he goes on to say, Vietnam wasn't even Vietnam.

In defense of Martha: It's certainly been a fun game to bash Martha Stewart over her alleged insider trading w/r/t ImClone. Of course the bashing really has more to do with her personality (as perceived) and her near-monopoly over decorating the homes and minds of the middle class. She's a success story that people love to tear down. I'm sure I've taken my share of pot-shots at her.

Comes now "Reason" with its eloquent and legally persuasive defense of Martha and the federal charges. The whole thing is worth a read, but here's just a particularly persuasive snippet:

The most serious criminal charge against her is not perjury or insider trading but securities fraud, based on the fact that she denied to the press, personally and through her lawyers, that she had engaged in insider trading. This was done, the feds say, not for the purpose of clearing her name, but only to prop up the stock price of her own publicly traded company, Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia. In other words, her crime is claiming to be innocent of a crime with which she was never charged.

As for the SEC’s civil case, it hinges on an elastic understanding of insider trading, an offense Congress has never defined. The justification for the ban on insider trading, which makes little economic or legal sense, is just as murky as the behavior covered by it. Given the difficulty of figuring out exactly what constitutes insider trading (let alone why it’s illegal), it is entirely possible that Stewart and her lawyers weren’t sure whether she had broken the rules. In any event, under existing case law, it’s clear that she didn’t.

The remainder of the article goes on to question the foundation of insider trading laws and whether they actually help achieve market efficiency. I'm not quite ready to say they don't, but you decide for yourself.

Good Point: Some talk today about the intimidation of artists regarding CBS's decision to send down the Reagan pic. (USA Today's Bob Bianco calls it "cowardly" and "creative sabotage.") Over here, though, Meghan Keane quotes Barbra Streisand, who says:

I don't believe Democrats often, if ever, try to muscle the First Amendment like this...these important decisions should be based on artistic integrity rather than an attempt to appease a small group of vocal dissidents.

Says Keane, "Is she talking about [CBS's] The Reagans, or [Mel Gibson's] The Passion?"

Arnold and the GOP: Harold Meyerson has an insightful (if perhaps plagued by overheated rhetoric) look at the curious relationship at work, what it means for the next year or so, and how Schwarzenegger could change the party:

In California, the governor-elect is hailed as the Republicans' Great White (or, through the miracle of modern tanning, Orange) Hope. The first Republican gubernatorial candidate to proclaim himself pro-choice, anti-assault weapon and anti-homophobic, Schwarzenegger exhibited a crossover appeal that the GOP hadn't seen since Ronald Reagan invented the Reagan Democrats.

Meanwhile, though, Bush has a base to appeal to:

More pointedly, as Karl Rove himself has noted, 4 million Christian evangelicals did not bestir themselves to vote in the election of 2000. At the rate things are going, Bush will need every one of those votes next year. Time, then, to unveil the real risk to our security. No, not al-Qaeda fanatics plotting the deaths of Americans at home or abroad. The administration's credibility on military and security matters generally may not be a whole lot higher than the Democrats' when the election rolls around.

Happily, Republicans have identified a threat right here at home on which the Democrats lack all backbone: marauding Unitarian ministers, cruising back alleys, threatening to swoop up same-sex couples and, before anyone can think better of it, marry them. Listen closely and you can almost hear the whispers: "Hey, big fellas -- wanna tie the knot?"

So what to make of it? As popular as Arnold is, the GOP is not about to stand for G(ay marriage), O(rgies in the gym), and P(ornography) -- much as we might celebrate such a change. Likewise, Arnold is not going to ever be socially conservative. It looks like it will be an awkward dance for Arnold and the party – and, importantly, for Arnold and Dubya. This is important stuff, and the GOP has to be thinking about the inroads Arnold made into independent-voter territory. Further, if Bush won in 2000 (arguably: yeah, yeah, yeah) with 4 million of his supposed base sitting on their hands, what kind of trade is worthwhile to pick up some Schwarzenegger Republicans in 2004? Meyerson calls for a "Sister Souljah" moment within the GOP, presumably on social issues. Don’t doubt for a second that the Bush team is looking for the right issue, the right time; they showed a bit of this by hammering some of the evangelicals who, post-9/11, attacked Islam.

Where Meyerson overreaches, though, is in his characterization of the stalemate:

[Schwarzenegger could] condemn his fellow party leaders for their manipulation of xenophobic, homophobic and racist fears. That speech would be no less powerful if delivered with an immigrant's accent.

Or Schwarzenegger could take a pass, and the Republican Party could stay its current course, alternating between Old Testament morality and new age sexuality in accord with the demographics of the district. Call it a big-tent party, or a boundless well of cynicism.

That’s a bit unfair, considering even Democrats have local/national conflicts that can’t easily be papered over. A nominee Howard Dean and his party will have to do a similar dance over guns, considering how Democrats accused Bush of giving the NRA their own West Wing suite. Dean, as Vermont (i.e., local) politics requires, is more vocally pro-NRA than Bush. Likewise, Gephardt has spoken loudly against NAFTA, as befits his Midwestern, union-heavy, blue-collar Democrat base. But NAFTA was a crowning triumph of the Clinton administration’s trade policy and a plank in the New Democrat platform that isn’t likely to disappear. A smug right-wing commentator could make hay about such cynicism (to use Meyerson’s word), and no doubt one is out there now, doing just that. In reality, though, that’s politics. Tom Daschle would love a majority in the Senate in 2004, even if it means getting out the vote for a pro-life Democrat. But the party certainly wouldn’t run a pro-life Democrat for president, since it takes away a good gender issue. Good politics? Yep. Cynicism? Hardly.

Keep on rockin' the vote in the free world: Here's the transcript of last night's Rock the Vote. It is actually pretty funny in the beginning when CNN puts together this montage of the candidates and their stock phrases. It then gets pretty inane. Pandering to the "Youth" so you can seem with it. They don't vote anyway, so why bother? Only Gephardt understood this and was eating at a diner in Iowa.

STILL READING IT: My favorite part is Dean playing Neil Young in "Southern Man" and then Edwards coming back in "Sweet Home [North Carolina]". Priceless pandering.

FAVORITE SHARPTON LINE: On why he's an "authentic" politician: "I've gone to jail ... I've been stabbed."

EDWARDS AGAIN: On how to create jobs. First, identify areas that need jobs, then dole out money to people as "seed money". Also, give "help" to businesses that will re-locate to areas that need it. Hmmm, this sounds like "handouts" to me.

KUCINICH: Also on job creation. Undo the Bush tax cuts on the rich. Then take 15% of the Pentagon budget and put into universal kindergarten. How this helps the economy is left unsaid. What a loon.

Props to Viking

Dems and Whigs: I don't place too much stock in the parallel. First, slavery was a major factor in dividing and destroying the Whigs. I don't see a similar divide on any issue for the Dems. Of course, the Dems do have to worry that minorities will one day desert the party. Were it not for the fact that blacks and hispanics (aside from Cubans) vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, the party would be a footnote after 1980. (And this is, of course, why Al Sharpton gets to go to all these debates -- even though he's a disreputable shakedown artist and race hustler -- and have soi disant principled candidates like Lieberman kiss his filthy hand.) But I don't foresee a quick change to the voting patterns of minorities ahead, and certainly not a shift on par with what abolitionism wrought.

Besides, I bet in the 1850s, people thought an implosion of the Whigs would be great for the Democrats. By 1861, a Republican -- you know, the third party -- was in the White House.

The future's so bright: An interesting answer to Vodka Pundit's question about the future of the Democratic party is proposed on the Armed and Dangerous blog. Essentially, if the Democratic party goes the way of the Whigs, the big winners are the Greens and the Libertarians, with the Democratic stranglehold on the black vote being broken. Interestingly, he makes no mention of the Independent party, proof that that group managed to bicker itself completely out of any serious discussion. So no more Jesse or Ross, sorry.

I can't see anyone from the Green party winning a significant national election, as their whole raison d' etre is so micro-focused that they'd have trouble broadening their base enough. The Libertarians might have a better chance, if they either embraced a more hawkish foreign policy or better explained how foreign direct investment and Levi jeans could transform the third world.

In the end, I think the point is that the Democratic party is so split into interest groups with checkbooks, that there is no cohesive set of principles keeping the party together. Maybe a split is inevitable. The big winner, though, would certainly be the Republicans. This seems so obvious, but Eric didn't mention it. The GOP might not gain in actual numbers, and may even lose some if, for instance, the Libertarian party became a more realistic choice, but a fractured Democratic party would scatter its members in a variety of directions. The net result would be marginally stronger GOP. Predictable chaos would then ensue.

Heeby Jeeby: Soft-porn and Nancy Reagan are words that shouldn't be used in the same 'graph. I have a funny twitch in my neck, suddenly. Anyway...

The Liberal Media rears its head often enough that I don't think this proves anything other than that network executives have spines as sturdy as as jellyfish and couldn't stand on their principles if it was part of a field sobriety test. I mean politics is important, but not if it hurts the overnights of Everybody Loves Raymond, right.

Shame on me: When I said "by all accounts this show is no smear job" that wasn't correct. By many accounts, it is a smear job. My point is that the series does take time out to show Reagan the moral, upright family man, as well as one who did great things for our nation and our world. Does it take shots at him too? Well, duhhhh.

Triple Shame: I trust CBS to do a fair telepic on Reagan like I trust Fox to do a fair telepic on Clinton. If you have any doubt in your mind that it will be a hatchet job either way, you deserve the "education" watching network TV offers you.

Nevertheless, I join my colleagues: Show the damn thing already, fer chrissake.

More interestingly...: How does this square with the "liberal media" label? On the one hand, evil liberal t.v. channel produces slanted, one-sided smear mini-series to poke fun at the "Great Communicator". Then, it censors itself and boots the show to Showtime where those looking for some late-night soft porn get ... Nancy Reagan, or at least Judy Davis as Nancy Reagan. I think CBS is suffering from an identity crisis.

Double shame: I, too, am disappointed with CBS for pulling The Reagans, though I diagree that this was much of an educational loss to anyone interested in learning about Reagan. There's much to be said for and against the Reagan years, including letting his administration run important operations without his oversight. If CBS wants to produce a documentary that criticizes RR, I'll support it and watch it, with an open if critical mind. If the reported quote from the script re: Reagan's take on AIDS sufferers was accurate, I think it's safe to assume that this was not such an intellectually and historically accurate look at the man or the couple.

That said, I think it should have been shown, on CBS not Showtime, simply because this sets a horrible precedent for networks caving in to pressure. It says they don't have the guts to make controversial programs and put them on the air despite hurting a few feelings. I may not have liked their treatment of the Reagans, but I wasn't about to boycott CBS over it. And I think it's important that media outlets don't always censor themselves to the point that caution becomes the rule. It's boring and doesn't "move the ball" in an intellectual sense.

Aside from that, I don't like sacred cows, even if Reagan is a man I respect and admire, despite his flaws.

The Reagan Myth: Apparently CBS finally got adjusted as to what happens to un-authorized portrayals as to the former Idol in Chief, Ronald Reagan. It's pulling the miniseries starring James Brolin as the Gipper. I don't know that I've ever seen such a protected image as Reagan's. Granted, he's still alive, which sets a different spin on things, but beginning with Nancy standing in for her man, and culminating recently with Noonan's fawning account of his life, the airport, and the aircraft carrier, it's clear that, perhaps much like JFK, Reagan is being set up as THE icon for his branch of idealogy, and this is a strict orthodoxy, tolerating no dissent.

I think it's fair that he's being picked as the godhead of conservatives, but that doesn't mean critical examination of that life can't occur (even Jesus gets his makeovers). If CBS is pulling the show and putting it on Showtime, for fear of boycotts (and by all accounts, this show is no smear-job, but rather tries to show a complex man during complex times) because certain people can't handle being criticized, then it shows that there is something afoot larger than the man. It also does many a disservice, especially younger people who now won't even have a chance to learn about someone that they either were too young to remember, or maybe missed altogether. Shame on CBS.

At least they have their sports teams: Apparently, people in Pittsburgh are a bit thin-skinned these days. So much so that they're sending death threats to a cartoonist who dared remark that the Steel City didn't smell so great. This is a strip called "Get Fuzzy" about a smarmy talking cat (think Garfield, but funny; hold the lasagna), a clueless talking dog, and their owner. I guess nothing newsworthy is going on over there.

Arrrgh: Bloody Roger Kidd be the name. Coincidentally, my two-year-old son learned to say "Aye, matey!" with the proper growl this weekend.

Oops. Scratch that. Real pirates don't say things like "coincidentally." Avast! Me boy talks like a deck swabbin' bilge rat, not a land lubber!

Re the pirate life: "Dirty William Rackham" be at the helm. And it'll stay that way, as none will come near me due to some inexplicable odor. Cool name, though, and that's what really attracts the ladies.

Speed cam love: Clunker car does 480 mph. Bitchin'!

As the speed cameras go up in my city, I look forward to hearing about these types of incidents more often. Aside from the issue police overreach, these things just don't work and they cost a ton, encouraging authorities to play a little fast and loose so the machines pay for themselves with tickets. There's no evidence that safety is improved, but somebody's making a buck, so who cares.

As for Mrs. James, the perp in question, the police should just drop it. I don't think they'll like the PR they're gonna get out of this.

Link from Agitator.

What pirate be ye?: Take, the quiz, take the quiz! I be "Captain Jack Kidd". In charge, but not your typical pirate. Arrggh....etc.

Props to A&L.

City Hall - up for grabs: Well, today it all comes to a head. Katz v. Street. The Embezzler vs. The Nepotist. One side promoting a lower tax structure, more business, more development and more jobs, the other, safer streets, better infrastructure, better-funded schools, and more police to fight drugs. Moderate Republican vs. Died In The Wool Democrat.

The polls don't paint a pretty picture for Katz. Amazingly, this guy only lost by 9,000 votes four years ago. The bugging scandal in City Hall has actually worked in Street's favor. If you go back about a month-and-a-half, Katz had a six point lead. That means a swing of roughly 26-27% in that time. You can only attribute that to a) voters simply changing their mind as the election drew nearer (meaning they were toying with Katz, but then figured they better stay on party lines), or b) the federal investigation energized Street's base as cries of "conspiracy" filled the air. I can tell you, it's more likely the latter, as I've heard enough people spout that rhetoric, egged on by Street's buddies, Gore and Clinton.

I usually vote Democrat, but am not tied to the party. Even my much more liberal wife said that this would be the one time she'd vote against the Dems (fortunately for them, we moved out of the city). Katz's message really got lost in this investigation scandal, which is too bad. As good a job as Street has done in cleaning up Philly, both literally (i.e. abandoned lots, broken-down cars) and metaphorically (violent crime and drugs), his own house is in great disorder (pick one), and he has no economic vision (other than spend, spend, spend). I'm afraid it's going to be four more years.

Over My Head: I've got work up to here today, and it's all due tomorrow. But I couldn't let the NPR story on melting ice caps slip by. The reporter was discussing the phenomenon of melting Arctic ice cover, which various experts went on to describe with words like "dire" and "alarming." (They never mentioned any actually alarming things, implying either that melting ice is, per se, alarming, or that the listener already knows why this is a bad thing.) Finally, at the end of the story, the reporter cleared up a standard green myth, that melting ice caps would flood coastal cities. No, the reporter said, this won't happen, just as an iced drink doesn't overflow when the ice melts. But, the reporter continued, other bad things could happen.* He then ended his report without mentioning what any of those bad things might be. Again, are we supposed to know? As NPR listeners, are we already convinced of the enormity of (eek!) allowing the planet to change in any way? It's as though someone, somewhere in the bowels of the eco-movement, picked a date -- Earth Day of 1992, for instance -- and decided that the planet was, at that moment, perfect. Any changes from that day forth would be eeeeeevil, and no doubt the fault of corporations, Skull and Bones, and Rupert Murdoch. This is what happens when ludditism goes to college.

* (This is paraphrased for the simple reason that the transcript isn't up, plus NPR makes you pony up for them. Listen for yourself: Go here, click "Archives," find the ice cap story in "Monday's stories.")

And now for something gross but funny. Hope your day is regular.

The Wild, Wild East: I have to admit, I have no concept of what modern-day Russia is like. I heard communism was over, but I also hear of all these movements to restore it.

Then there's Putin. Dubya said he looked into Putin's eyes and saw his soul. Many Russians laughed at this notion as most doubt he has one. Well, now he's hell-bent on exacting revenge on the "Oligarchs" who took the Communist industrial machine left-overs and with a little know-how and a whole lot of corruption and violence, made themselves filfthy rich.

This is a fascinating study of the early stages of capitalism, that should be examined closely.

More Irrelevance: To add to the discussion, I note that Florida Senator Bob Graham, a solid (D), has decided not to seek reelection. Who knows if it's the crappy and truncated primary trip he had. Whatever his reasons, though, this is a blow for the Dems.

Democratic irrelevance: Vodka Pundit links to Daniel Drezner, getting depressed over Dick Gephardt. And for good, reason. The anti-trade isolationism of the Democratic party is near the top of the list of reasons I remain in the R camp. Does all this anwer the VP's question in another post?

NOTE FOR DISCUSSION: Is the Democratic Party becoming increasingly likely to pull a Whig Maneuver and disappear into history? If so, what replaces it?

Although I think the tide is with free-traders (Republican or Democrat), there's still a captive market for rhetoric on the other side. Will "Democrat" give way to "Progressive" or some other term? Maybe, but let's hope we can always tell an idiot when we spot one.

Giggle: Worst album covers. From Jonah, back hard at work.

True dat: Eno, I think both Jonah's question and the medical study point out a major problem with some people's interpretation of religion (though to be fair, some of Jonah's readers get it, and I think he does as well). If the basis of your creed is to have access to a power that can right a wrong or save a life, you're wasting your time. One doesn't pray with a tit for tat attitude. If there's any benefit to prayer, it's the opportunity it provides to search within to order one's priorities, to determine what is important in life. For that reason, it doesn't matter whether we pray alone or en masse or if our prayers are ever answered. And keep in mind, as one of Jonah's reader's pointed out, if you believe in God, then all prayers are answered. But sometimes the answer is no.

More Prayer: Flyer, I think Goldberg's initial question (which is really more of a WTF than he's letting on) is intriguing in a three-bong-hit, bull-session kind of way. But such is the downfall of theology that it gets wrapped up in itself trying to create a palatable answer (viz. some of the letters he posts). Such is the difference between faith and knowledge of course, and I don't mean to knock faith. But prayer is a silly topic for medical study, since there is no actual mechanism to study. It's like astrology, wherein coincidence is taken as proof, at face value. As much as the Duke study might dress itself up, it's still a study of an instance of happenstance, nothing more.

Prayer: Eno, maybe you should pass this research along to Jonah, or at least some of his readers. His theme of the day is whether the number of people praying for divine intervention makes a difference. Is God swayed by multitudes, like a pol. I'm not really sure what his point is, but he's getting a lot of responses.

Citizen Zell: Flyer, in 2000 I might have taken such a strong Bush endorsement from Zell Miller as a threat to jump the aisle. But he's retiring after this term, and he's old enough that I doubt he still harbors any ambition greater than returning to his front porch and tick hounds. I don't even see a lower-tier cabinet seat for the guy at this point. My speculation? This is a half-and-half deal: He's doing it half out of conviction (I think he really supports Dubya) and half as a slap at the Dems for entirely abandoning the traditional Southern conservative who (like the Boston Democrats I spoke of earlier) is born with a (D) next to his name. Zell is one guy who never had to wonder why the Dems lost the South almost completely after LBJ. He already knew.

Power of Prayer: My wife (that's Mrs. Enobarbus) does a lot of work with research methods, statistical analysis, and statistical significance. Thus, we had a good topic to discuss when, two years ago, the news broke that research had shown a statistically significant benefit from prayer:

Patients admitted to hospital with heart problems suffer fewer complications if someone prays for them, according to scientists in the US.

The study, carried out at Duke University Medical Center in North Carolina, found that patients who received alternative therapy following angioplasty were 25% to 30% less likely to suffer complications . . . [a]nd those who received "intercessory prayer" had the greatest success rate.

I never doubted that this was anything more than an anomaly, a bit of statistical noise. It was a small study, first of all; secondly, and more importantly, I didn't see how researchers could effectively work past all the variables that might confound attempts to isolate what amounts to a "paranormal" phenomenon. In other words, we can know (to some extent) why a single heart patient might get well. He may change his diet, start an exercise regimen, quit smoking, etc. But there's no telling why a group of patients might get better (at least not without extensive data collection), and attempting to paste a question of prayer onto such a problem is an open door to the misinterpretation of the data.

So I was unsurprised to read this follow-up:

The world's largest study into the effects of prayer on patients undergoing heart surgery has found it appears to make no difference.

The results of the controversial study contradict earlier findings from the same team which suggested a drop of a quarter or more in "adverse outcomes" - including death, heart failure or heart attack.

However, that trial involved only 150 patients, and the more extensive research, completed this year, found no evidence of any benefits.

But the point is that this research is really no better. It came up with an accurate answer (that there's no reason to believe prayer helps) but the methodology is still so flawed that the whole line of research should be thrown out. I can't believe adults are studying this with straight faces.

Aussie holding up his end: Lileks had an entertaining houseguest over the weekend, Aussie blogger Tim Blair. Having tossed a few back with Australians before, I can sympathize with James' next day recovery.

Flat tax in Iraq: Matthew Hoy criticizes the Washington Post's treatment of Paul Bremer's decision to institute a 15% flat tax in Iraq. He believes their somwhat lighthearted attitude unfairly mocks the flat tax movement at home, and he's right. But The Post does fairly point out some of the benefits of a flat tax, including the ease of administering it and the extent it encourages compliance and discourages evasion. It also recognizes, somewhat, the success of the flat tax in both Russia and Hong Kong. I'll take it as a compliment that the best Dana Milbank can do is get Gene Sperling to make clever jokes about Steve Forbes.

From the Times Have Changed Dept.: We certainly tried to get away with everything we could in high school, but this really takes....um...guts. Teaser:

Claxton said the fact that the students were having sex while under supervision of school personnel is very disturbing.

Disturbing? Now who's overreacting Mr. Claxton?

Link props to Brooke.

Zell's choice: Zell Miller will vote for W. He gives personal and political reasons, but it comes down to this:

I find it hard to believe, but these naive nine [the democratic candidates] have managed to combine the worst feature of the McGovern campaign--the president is a liar and we must have peace at any cost--with the worst feature of the Mondale campaign--watch your wallet, we're going to raise your taxes. George McGovern carried one state in 1972. Walter Mondale carried one state in 1984. Not exactly role models when it comes to how to get elected or, for that matter, how to run a country.

Those closest to us usually know us best, and Zell knows these guys inside and out. How embarrassed they must be that he can't muster the stomach to endorse any of them, even as a "least-worst" candidate.

But here's the big qusetion: is this really salt-of-the-earth stuff from Miller, or does it portend a flip across the aisle? The Republicans would welcome an addition to the family and maybe Zell smells an opportunity. I don't know anything particular, but politicians are loathe to make such a bold statement without it serving a larger purpose: their own.

Notice there weren't any RUSH quotes: If so, I imagine all three of we nerds would have done even better. 93 for Razor.

The Big Question: This one's for Viking Pundit. Robert Keough, writing in the Globe Ideas section Sunday, wonders why the Bay State can't elect a Democrat as governor:

The Democratic Party dominates all levels of state politics -- from state representative to US senator -- but cannot capture the State House corner office. A year after losing their fourth consecutive gubernatorial election, Democrats are still asking themselves: Why?

Demographics show the GOP gaining huge ground in the middle class, and taking a bigger portion of top earners than before. But that doesn't explain ticket-splitting factor:

Perhaps the most straightforward explanation of the Democrats' gubernatorial woes came from Shawni Littlehale, of the free-market Pioneer Institute for Public Policy Research. In Littlehale's estimation, Massachusetts voters are "purely selfish": "The majority of the electorate wants a fiscally conservative governor to push for lower taxes and cuts in our bloated state government, while they want their [state] rep/state senator to bring home perks for their cities and towns."

Perhaps. But Democrats examining the issue might want to take a look at some of the characters they've put forth for the office lately, too -- Shannon O'Brien, Joe Malone, John Silber: The party has not come very far since a fellow named Mike Dukakis left the governor's chair in 1990. Meanwhile, the GOP has discovered that the Massachusetts variety of genetic Democrat is likely to be more socially conservative, increasingly suburban, and (as trends the country) more a part of the "new investor" class. Couldn't it simply be that, on a statewide level, the liberal boilerplate platform just doesn't bait the hook anymore? Don't hold your breath waiting for the Globe to say so.

Very funny: I took the quiz last night.

Enter the Matrix: Some of you may not be mathematics morons of my level, but this boggles my mind:

Since the time of Descartes, we've found it very powerful to label points by their coordinates, either on Earth by their latitude and longitude or in three-space by the three Cartesian coordinates, x, y and z, that you learn in high school. And we've always imagined that those numbers are like ordinary numbers, which have the property that, when you multiply them together--which is often an operation you need to do in physics--the answer doesn't depend on the order of operation: 3 times 5 is 5 times 3. What we seem to be finding is that when you coordinatize space on very small scales, the numbers involved are not like 3's and 5's, which don't depend upon the order in which they're multiplied. There's a new class of numbers that do depend on the order of multiplication.

They're actually not that new, because for a long time we have known of an entity called the matrix. Sure as shooting, matrix multiplication depends upon the order of multiplication. A times B does not equal B times A if A and B are matrices.

Thanks to that link from A&LD, I now need a beer.

Wildfire: Easterbrook took on an issue of huge environmental significance last week: wildfires in the West. This is good for two reasons: first, people who wants to "save the environment" can do a hell of a lot more good by getting their minds off foolishness like global warming and think about real-world problems and solutions; second, if they decide to do so, Easterbrook has the cred among the liberal opinion-setters (or, er, did have) to move policy on this issue.

Easterbrook agrees that fire is part of the natural forest cycle, and that surpressing it, without managing the resulting fuel load, is the worst course. It is also the "green" course. Environmental organizations believe the only thing worse that the fires is logging and the kind of selective, "smart" clearing Bush has proposed. Speaking of which, Easterbrook says:

Note that, since it is fashionable to deride George W. Bush's environmental policies, the president's "healthy forest" initiative, unveiled months ago, contains many provisions aimed at exactly the sort of pragmatic management that would reduce wildfires. The "healthy forest" bill was blocked in the Senate by Democrats and enviro lobbyists, who expressed horror at the thought of artificial intervention in the forest. Wednesday, as San Diego burned, the Senate passed the legislation 97-1. Bush's plan is far from perfect, but will move forest management back toward realism.

Note that Easterbrook's not entirely sold on the president's "far from perfect" program, but also that he's, wisely, willing to take half a loaf at this point. The enviro lobby should follow his lead.

We covered this issue a bit this summer, particularly in a post wherein I said:

Like it or not, humans are part of the environment, and we're going to have some kind of effect. We can manage that effect, in a sort of ecological compromise that approximates a healthy, low-fuel level forest; or we can worship at the altar of Gaia and get the results that the last couple of years have brought to Arizona. As with the anti-war crowd, the anti-managed environment crowd sees lots of evil in current policies but has no plan to defend against the consequences of the surrender they advocate.

I'm cautiously optimistic that we're seeing the death throes of the crowd that would defenestrate cause-and-effect reasoning and effective resource management in favor of the new-age mythology of nature that passes for enlightened enviro policy on the left. By the way, the link to Smithsonian's excellent reporting on wildfires and forest management in my July post is still active, if you missed it before.

80s Update: I linked you to the answers and you still couldn't break 100, Flyer? You're an honest fellow.

Link fixed.

80's quiz: 92.5. A couple spelling errors hurt along the way. Use this link, though. Eno linked to the answers page.

Remember the 80s? Test your knowledge of cheesy 80s lyrics. I got 108.5. (Link via Radley.)

More: It's a pretty difficult quiz, and I don't think I'll be giving much away by noting an outstanding reference to an early Human League hit, the inclusion of a couple of one-hit wonders (Cutting Crew, anyone?), and some tough lyrical nuggets from songs you thought you knew. But, as the quizmaster him/herself points out, some of them are pretty easy to guess. It would toughen up the test to make the contestant vie for full credit by identifying the artist, the song title, and perhaps even the year of release. Try it yourself as you take the quiz. Even if most of the lyrics spur your memory, you'll find yourself occasionally asking, "Now who the hell did that song anyway?"