Reported on MSNBC: Lines are so long in Ohio that a judge has ruled that people waiting in lines must be given paper ballots to cast their votes now. Smell that? That's the scent of litigation. Florida redux indeed.

Cokie: Didn't she always sound like that? I gave up on Rather for Brokaw and Russert. They're about as solid as it gets, and Russert is a smart bastard and a vet of Moynihan's team, so he has one foot in the neo-con world and one foot in the old-school liberal world.

I'm more convinced that ever that Brian Williams is the wrong guy to go to when Brokaw walks away tomorrow. He lacks (wait for it) gravitas. And the way he points with his chin and scrunches up his neck reminds me of Jennings. They must teach it in anchor school.

Continuing coverage reviews: Pat Buchanan never fails to annoy. He sounds like he's delivering a stump speech about exit polls. But he makes a good point about Bush holding WV. The people there are culturally similar to the western Pennsylvania and southern Ohio voters. That seems true, although it may have been a lot more so twenty years ago.

Ohio: Could we be looking at this year's Florida? It's early days yet, but these electors are worth fighting for.

Sominex: Just switched to ABC. Peter Jennings and George Will sound like they're discussing opera. The most calm voices I've heard tonight. But Cokie sounds like she's losing her voice already.

Fun, fun, fun: I couldn't take any more Larry King, who's practically lounging on the conference table at CNN HQ. NowI've switched to NBC which has a nice ominous background music every time they make a call.

I agree with Eno's point about early calls and would note that the Florida panhandle will probably be as critical as in 2000. It could come down to Miami v. Pensacola.

Local Hero: James Miller, game theorist and he of TCS fame, is running for state senate in my district, and he's getting stomped like a drag queen at a biker bar. He got my vote, but I don't think it helped much. He's getting about 9% of the vote right now. This is the fate of the Republican in Western Massachusetts. But hats off to Miller for giving it a whirl anyway.

I'm actually surprised that a game theorist would run with the GOP here. He'd do better out here as an independent or Libertarian -- and he never has struck me a a guy wedded to right-wing politics. I can only suppose that he ran the regression analyses and thought this his least worst option.

A Word About Turnout: My guess is that turnout will be as much of a factor in Florida as anywhere else. Since the numbers are breaking for Bush, I'm guessing that turnout will not be a big boost for Kerry. I had figured that an early indication that Kerry was running away with Florida would be the night's first tip-off that the Dems had the upper hand on GOTV. It may be the case that turnout for the Dems is biggest in safe states anyway: New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont.

New Hampshire is interesting. A former solid red state, it is following the Vermont pattern of becoming a moderate-to-liberal state as middle-class refugees from southern New England take advantage of lower taxes and lower housing costs to the north. (I've considered the move myself.) I think the GOP can start to write off New Hampshire.

I'm not sure that the GOP can count on Hawaii to fill the resulting void. If Hawaii goes GOP this year, it will simply be a fluke.

Caution: The networks are playing it very close to the vest tonight. In Virginia (too close to call, sayeth NBC) Bush is up 58-42, with 18 percent reporting. In 2000, this would have been a called state. Florida, too, is breaking solidly for Bush with about 20 percent of precincts reporting. I'm not saying that the numbers can't change, but I think it's unlikely. We're looking at a media that was berned once and is working very hard to avoid red faces tonight.

One Way to Look at It: Of course, as we all know, the national popular vote is meaningless. Still, most sources are showing Bush running ahead by about 57-42, roughly the same break that the market-based sources (Tradesports, etc.) were calling. If nothing else, this election will put this kind of forecasting though its paces nationally.

Ratherism of the Moment: Referring to Joe Lockhart's confidence regarding swing states: "Lockhart hasn't learned not to talk to the alligator until after you've crossed the creek."

Inside Baseball: Surprisingly, Blogger is running pretty well tonight -- not great, but decent, and better than the past few days . . . Hold on a f*cking second.

Rather, referring to how states will be "called": "Doesn't this all sound as complicated as the wiring diagram for some kind of hydro electric generator?" I'm either going to have to change the station, or spend the whole night documenting Rather's blather.

Back to the details. I'm drinking a good red-state beer tonight -- none of that metrosexual fruit-beer shit for me. I'll be blogging until the beer runs out, or until I get sick of this crap. I've only got the networks, so chances are I'll shoot the tube and go to bed in about 20 minutes, unless Dan Rather keeps cracking me up.

Bush Takes WVa: I thought at first that this might be a good sign for Bush, perhaps a belwether for Ohio. But so little of WVa is urban; Ohio has Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton. In the stix, there's quite a bit of demographic overlap.

Rather: "Ohio is a sauna now. Candidates can only wait and sweat." Jesus, is he the idiot savant poet of the networks, or what?

CBS: I'm watching now, and it looks a bit like a pledge drive with lots of money and silent phones. Danny Rather just said, "One thing nobody wants is a repeat of the vote counting of 2000." Shut up, Dan. I for one would love to see that again. November/December of 2000 was a bracing time period. Constitutional crisis? Naw. Democracy in action.

Exit poll fears: I haven't been following them closely, but the mood at The Corner isn't good. Ergo, Bush may be in trouble. Of course the thought of Kathryn Lopez pulling her hair out and wailing about Catholics in Wisconsin is a fair trade for losing the election. Too funny.

More Worrisome: Anyone else notice that Vodka has been down all day? I'm sure he's just resting up for when the returns start rolling in, but can someone maybe run over and ring the doorbell just to make sure all is well?

Sidenote: Saw the new movie Ray last night, with Jamie Foxx as Ray Charles. Overall, I'd give it a B+, a good story with lots of great music. Foxx makes a good effort at imitating Charles' unique facial expressions and head movement. The supremely talented musician who becomes a womanizing junkie and cleans up his life after hitting bottom is not a new story, but I expect much of it is true, so they did their best to tell it well. Ray was apparently traumatized as a young kid when he watched his brother die in a drowning accident and he takes drugs to repress the memory, and can't be free of heroin's grasp till he deals with it. Okay, I've seen this before.

Really, the best parts of the movie deal more with his struggle to find his musical voice, his own style instead of replicating other more established stars. His dealing with Atlantic Records and eventual move to ABC for more money and control of the music is also interesting, though I'd be interested to find out how much back story was left out.

Also, the movie makes it seem as if Ray's social conscience was nearly nonexistent until one sudden day in Georgia when he refused to play to a segregated audience. As a black, blind musician playing in Southern clubs, he must've been the vicitim of some pretty nasty discrimination and formed some thoughts on civil rights along the way. But in Ray he goes from Southern "boy," content to make a living playing the Jim Crow "chitlin' circuit" to standing up to the man in about 30 seconds. Some evolution might have been portrayed.

Some of the best secenes were of Ray and the Sonny Fulson band playing those Southern, black, clubs. Interestingly, I spotted two places within a few blocks of my old New Orleans apartment, the Half Moon and Saturn Bar. Whether Ray actually played those places or not I don't know; they may have just made good film and apropriately signaled that he was playing in New Orleans, but not many people would recognize these two places so I doubt the latter. Maybe they're just cool signs.

It's worth seeing, even if you wait to rent it.

Libertarians: There were a number of LP candidates on the ballot in my district, including one for Commissioner at Large (a cool title, I think). He's a guy named Jack Stratton, and he made the news big in Charlotte a couple years ago in a battle with the local social services department. He's a Christian Fnndamentalist and all around strange character, but he exposed the local DSS for the anti-civil liberties crowd that they are. I'm not sure he's entirely balanced, but I voted for him because I think he's right in his case and he's said his campaign is all about getting enough attention to get his kids back. He has no chance, but good luck anyway.

Done: Just back from the polling site, and all is calm. I expected to see picketers out front screaming and chanting and handing out pamphlets that call into question the oppostitions stand on the whole puppies/boiling oil issue. At least maybe some voter intimidation to worry about. Nope,everybody stood in line peacefully and made polite jokes about waiting in line. Slight drizzle.

I walked over to the designated elementary school with my roommate Seth and neighbor Ted. I voted Bush, as I declared I would. Seth voted Kerry, as a Bubsh hating sci-fi geek should. We cancel each other out, meaning Ted was the "battleground" vote in our party. I didn't ask who he was voting for. Didn't seem right, and politics takes a backseat to friendship at the end of the day.

Congrats, by the way to Eric Lindholm, whose site is getting a much deserved traffic boost these days. His workmanlike pace of posting is getting its reward.

I know why too, Andrew: Let's see, you're a president who lost the popular vote in your first campaign and went through a court case that gave a stain of illegitimacy and lack of mandate to your first term. The worst terrorist attack on American soil happens under your watch and the economy reacts by diving further under the bed than it already was. Then you take the country to war, despite the criticism of most media and punditry and the going is a lot rougher than anyone was willing to believe it would be. And your opponent still can't get half the country to say we could use a different guy?