Federer-Nadal, Again: I stand by my statement, post-Roland Garros, that there's a better than even money chance that Nadal will beat Federer on grass before Federer beats Nadal on clay. Sometimes a player just has your number, and you can't do anything about it. Think McEnroe-Conners in 1984. I mean, who the hell whips Jimmy in straight sets? McEnroe did it and made it hurt.

Well, Nadal appears to have Federer's number. Granted, we are now on Roger's preferred surface, and he's still number one (for now); but Rafa has brought his grass game up hugely and is a legitimate threat Sunday, which many had hoped for but almost no one imagined was truly likely.

The only light for Roger, really, is that Nadal struggled significantly against Baghdatis's solid service and variety of winners in the second set. If he comes heavy, Federer can play Marko's game 10 times sharper. But the Federer who showed up for the final in Paris will get his ass whipped.